November 2020 Update

In November, our net worth rose 12.04% and 10.91% to $83,765 and €70,155 respectively. This was after two months of greater than 5% declines.

The main reason for this is that the stock market did very well in November. It'd been a rough couple of months leading up to the US election, but November's performance more than made up for that. Some of my individual holdings really just exploded upwards, and some of the weaker positions regained some ground.

The main driver is likely the good news from the various coronavirus vaccines. I wanted Joe Biden to win, but I'm under no illusions about the market rising because of his victory. The virus and the resultant economic pain and disruption are the alpha and omega right now.

This past week was Thanksgiving, which I celebrated only by video chatting with some family in the US. My wife and I didn't prepare a giant meal since we're being good social-distancers, and a couple pizzas were just fine. I remain thankful that we've remained healthy, and that our careers haven't been too negatively impacted. It could have gone differently, but through luck we've gotten through this so far better than many. I'm thankful.

October 2020 Update

Our liquid net worth fell 5.07% and 6.51% to $74,763 and €63,252 respectively in October.

The reason for the fall is entirely because we bought a piano, and they're expensive. We actually ended up getting a better deal than expected, which will save us about 1k EUR, but it meant receiving it now rather than later. To keep myself honest, I've listed it on our balance sheet as a liability since we'll be paying for it over the course of the next year. It's a rent-to-buy: we'll be making payments while simultaneously saving for the lump-sum payment we'll have to make in one year. However, there's no interest accruing, and the price we could have paid all at once was the same as the price for rent-to-buy.

You can see the liability on the chart as a pink mass below the zero line.

Otherwise, stocks performed surprisingly well. We saved some money. I got an automatic raise due to my employment length with the company. It's the kind of raise that helps a little now, but over the course of years it really adds up. My wife is working more hours.

New COVID Lockdown

Yesterday, new coronavirus-related rules went into effect across Germany, which limit certain activities. We're allowed to go outside, and while my wife's profession isn't currently impacted, my company can't earn any revenue for the next month at least. We've been assured that it's not an existential crisis, but of course the mere mention of that idea raises alarm bells.

It's good to have savings in a time like this, though we wish we had even more. I can hear you now, "Then why the hell did you just buy a piano?" And the answer is because it was important for my marriage, which is more important than any one bout of employment. It was clear that this was very important for my wife, and I think my company will most likely survive this.

The alarm bells are nevertheless a good reminder to keep socking away cash.

I'd Hoped to Quit my Job 5 Years Ago Today

On my phone this afternoon, I got a popup from my todo app "Quit Your Job".

I laughed and left it up to admire it. Looking at the notes section of the task, I saw, "I want to be able to quit within 5 years. Written on Sunday October 4, 2015."

Unfortunately, I'm not able to quit my job. However, by setting an impossible goal, I paid off my student loans, saved a lot of money, kept myself out of debt, and avoided major financial pitfalls like buying cars.

I could have done more, yes, but what exactly? I moved to a more expensive part of the city, but the benefits to my life were too great to pass that up. Seriously, my rent was crazy low before, but we were miserable in a lonely part of town that forced us into a long train commute. We've made some big purchases, true, but we've avoided others.

I won't quit my job today, but I'm a lot closer to that dream than I was then. So I'll defer the task for another five years, and we'll see where we are then.

August and September, 2020 Update

Our net worth rose in August by 8.34% and then fell in September by 5.96% in dollars. The EUR figures are similar.

In August, we, along with anyone who owned stocks corresponding to the U.S indexes, saw our wealth shoot up rapidly. It was both fun and unnerving, since the biggest news related to Apple and Tesla's stock splits. Sure enough, shortly after both companies split their stock, the markets began to fall.

The good thing about having survived March by just watching prices plummet, is that normal corrections barely register. Now, if we suffer a protracted decline à la 2001-2002, that might be harder to stomach. But the truth is, I'm not done saving: I want prices of great companies to fall. I was nervous in August because I knew we wanted to buy more stock, rising prices now lowers future returns.

The Election

I am not changing anything about my financial goals in response to the election. That doesn't mean I'm not worried. I've imagined all sorts of horrible scenarios, such as:

• Consequences for Americans abroad due to strained relations between the US and its allies
• A closing off of American society that begins to affect the lives of Americans abroad
• A drastic change to the tax code that doesn't adequately incorporate the needs of US expats
• A collapse of the rule of law in the US
• Major civil unrest and/or civil war

I hope none of these things happens. I don't think any of them will (though the US probably isn't done writing tax laws that harm citizens abroad), but I'd be a fool not to imagine them, especially since things like this have already happened.

It's worth imagining. It's also worth remembering that the U.S. tends to figure its problems out and that having some faith in the country is likely the best course of action. You know, it's the "Triumph of the optimists".

Outlook

I'm not expecting a major change in October. We're continuing to save for the piano, and we've planned on renting to buy beginning in December. That will cost us more money vs. buying it all at once, but I view it as buying an insurance policy: just in case the world falls apart and I lose my job, I have an out. If we get to December 2021, and all is well, it will be easier to part with the full cost.

Good luck out there. It's a weird and stressful time. We've been getting some laughs by watching Cobra Kai on Netflix. I've heard it described as a guilty pleasure, but I don't feel guilty at all liking it.

Net Worth Update: June and July, 2020

In June, our liquid net worth¹ increased by 8.01% in USD and 5.7% in EUR to $68,000 and €60,606 respectively. In July, it increased 13.67% and 9.48% to $77,298 and €66,350 respectively.

The biggest factor in both months was the stock market. Like anyone who held positions similar to the overall market, we experienced terrific growth. It is counterintuitive that in such a moment, with as much economic hardship as exists, that the stock market should be on such a tear. I honestly don't know exactly what it is that the market sees, and I won't pretend to. I listen to a lot of stock market talk, and some experts claim that this is a bubble that's likely to pop at any moment, while others say otherwise. It's pointless to try and act on this chatter. I know what my time horizon is, and I hold.

Cash is King (Sometimes)

One thing I haven't been doing, however, is buying. Our savings the past few months has gone exclusively to cash. That's not a stock market timing call but rather a series of tactical moves given the relative uncertainty of the moment. I know that we have certain large expenses in the future, but I don't know what my wife's income will be, and it's hard to guess it more than a few weeks out. Therefore, I've been preemptively saving to knock out those costs whenever they arise, in order to prevent having to scramble to pay for them from that month's cashflow. You might be thinking, "Well, duh, that's the way savings works," and you'd be right. But our situation has changed enough that we have to do this for stuff that we could previously just pay for out of cashflow.

That means saving early for tax preparation costs, estimated taxes, and large purchases. We've also been continually adding to our emergency fund. An emergency fund is basically early saving for known recurring expenses in addition to surprises, after all. One unsettling aspect of this pandemic is that my industry has been especially hard hit, and my seemingly secure job doesn't feel as secure anymore.

A couple of large cash infusions also buoyed these months' changes. In June, we deposited the stimulus check that was sent out. US expats who file their taxes were also eligible, and we were happy for the money. Secondly, my employer paid me early for August, and without any message from them, I truly don't know what that was about (new employee clicked the wrong button on the bank website maybe? I've done it).

And on top of that, because most of our cash is in the euro, the recent upward spike of the euro's value has made that lump more valuable in USD.

Vacation?

Although it's summer vacation time in Germany, we have decided to stay home. And by home, I mean our apartment in Germany. We contemplated some trips, but hotel prices in Germany weren't low enough to really make it worth our while. Outside of Germany, some prices are incredible, but we quickly wrote off getting in a plane or bus or long distance train, especially since those prices also aren't all that great.

I will say, the FOMO is real. The weather's also not been very summer-like, so it's been kind of lonely and dark. We've used the time to take care of some home improvement projects, and I've been using FaceTime more often to get in touch with American family.

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1. This includes: bank accounts, investments (excluding German private pension but including US IRAs), credit cards, rewards programs valued at 1¢ per point, cash, installment plans and any other debts. ↩︎

Net Worth Update: May, 2020

This is late, but our liquid net worth increased in May by 10.46% in USD and 8.95% in EUR to $62,959 and €57,340 respectively.

Honestly, that feels like an absurd number to report considering the economic upheaval happening around the world, but whatever the stock market is doing, it helped us in May. Of course, we're not especially wealthy, so a 10% increase meant around a $6000 change. But whatever the case, I'm happy for the positive month. I hope the asset price optimism is worth it, and that the stock market's implied future situation for the worldwide economy is correct.

Additionally, I got the last of the assistance payments for my dental work. In all, the dental work was a big cash suck (over several years), but the various bits of help from my insurances lightened the blow a bit.

Why Late?

There are two reasons this took me longer to publish than normal.

The first is that I didn't succeed in coming up with the non-liquid NW number. It turned out to be more complicated than I expected. For example, we'd need to estimate the value of both my and my wife's Social Security value as well as our Deutsche Rentenversicherung value. It's certainly doable, but it's tricky.

The second reason is that with the protests happening in the US and abroad following the murder of George Floyd, it felt tactless to write about how I made money in May. Maybe it's no better this week to do it, but that first week of June felt like attention should be focused on the protests and the issues surrounding them.

Despite the fact that I'm trying to improve our economic situation by saving as much income as is feasible, I recognize that the system has major flaws that leave a lot of people out. I think those of us trying to take advantage of the capitalist system as it stands should look at those failures and be honest about them. I don't have any answers to offer about those failures, but the first step is acknowledging them.

June Forecast

As has been the case since the start of the pandemic, my wife's income has been hit hard. I'm incredibly lucky that my job has survived thus far, and my pay hasn't been too adversely affected, but our household income is down a lot.

We got our US stimulus check in May, and after several weeks of trying to figure out how to deposit it, we finally succeeded. So that will be part of the June change.

And of course, the stock market is going to do whatever it does. This last week was crazy volatile, and I expect that we'll see lots more of that.

Net Worth Update: April, 2020

Our net worth increased in April to 8.68% in USD and 9.68% in EUR to $56,998 and €52,630 respectively.

After two months of declines, the numbers reversed with one of the best months for stock longs in decades. That was the primary basis for our own results because our income was definitely down. I earned less at the end of March than usual, and my wife's income was also depressed.

Because I own a mix of growth and value stocks, individual stock performance was all over the place. Some got creamed in March and barely recovered during the April rally, while others roared back to all time highs. Already, some companies are announcing cuts to their dividends, which I'm not worried about: I prefer that they cut their dividends than risk the viability of the firm.

We did pretty well with our savings, saving 35.51% of our mixed pre/post tax incomes. Our spending was drastically reduced in April, and I suspect that May will be the same. One area where spending remained high was groceries. Despite using some Payback points (a popular European loyalty program) to get about €100 in grocery store vouchers, we still we on the high end of our budgeted amount. Part of that was my elevated alcohol consumption at the beginning of April (even the cheap stuff adds up), but I'm still a bit surprised. I guess by not eating out ever we're just eating more groceries.

Re-thinking How I Calculate Net Worth

Currently, I add up the follow to come up with net worth:

• Bank accounts
• Investment accounts (including tax-advantaged accounts)
• Credit cards
• Loans (0 currently)
• Installment plans for large purchases (0 currently)
• Cash
• Loyalty programs with a clear cash value
• In both USD and EUR

However, we have other stuff that has value and should be added in, such as:

• Defined benefit pension
• Social security in the US and Germany
• Physical assets with some kind of sale value
• The remaining value of our labor

That's definitely part of our worth! If I took out a life insurance policy on myself, I'd try and value what my income means to my wife, and some kind of discount cash flow model would probably be the way to determine the value of the policy.

Plus the "stuff" we have has value. Just looking around the room where I'm sitting, I could probably get more than a few thousand for the random bits of technology that we have. Now, to be sure, those are depreciating assets - meaning they lose value over time - but they're assets and should be counted as such. And that's before we get to owning large physcial assets such as a house or car.

There are two reasons I haven't included them before:

1. There's a certain amount of guesswork involved in valuing these things. A DCF (discount cash flow) model has some major assumptions baked in, for one, and guessing how much I could get for a computer or camera or dining room table is tricky. Unlike cars, there's no Kelly Blue Book for most depreciating assets. I'll probably use eBay averages to get a sense of what something's worth, but it's still an assumption.
2. None of these are liquid assets. Although they might be part of my monetary worth, I can't spend this stuff. I couldn't access my pension or SS, and turning a coach into cash is hardly instantaneous. That said, my IRA accounts in the US also aren't liquid: the tax consequences are so onerous that it would be absurd to turn those into cash and spend them.

Therefore, I'll have to arrive at two numbers: a "total" net worth and a liquid net worth. I think for most people interested in FIRE (Financially Independent Retire Early), the liquid net worth is the more important number.

I think I'll have this ready to go at the end of May, but that's only a guess.

Until then.