First Quarter Update 2024

We had an excellent first quarter of 2024. Our net worth rose 8.42%/%10.82 quarter over quarter to $182,025/€168,542.

After I'd tallied everything, it hit me that we might cross the $200,000 mark sometime this year. It wouldn't even take outstanding performance. Even if our wealth compounds at 7% over the next two years, we'd pass that threshold sometime in 2025. Naturally, it's best to not become attached to any rate of return, but I'm trying to steel myself for the fact that growth might come more quickly than I'd anticipated.

Naturally, the primary mechanism of this is stock market growth. I've been saving every month, but the market has been easily outpacing my contributions. It's also been outpacing my spending (I went to the United States and bought a new iPhone this quarter). However, the reverse could just as easily be the case. So far in April, our portfolios have plunged more than our current year contributions. That kind of volatility is to be expected, but it's still bracing to see. Our contributions are gentle rows in a canoe that's already flowing through the water, but the current can still take us in unexpected directions.

Pension Valuation

We crossed the $100,000 mark sometime in late 2020, and I didn't recognize it at the time. I hadn't begun adding my German pension to the calculation, so life continued as normal. Frankly, I could probably goose the current numbers to equal greater than $200k now; all I'd have to do is value my pension as the equivalent of my contributions. But without a good reason to do so, I won't do that. When considering a pension rationally, the value of it can only equal or be greater than the value of contributions when viewed in hindsight.

One new emergent factor in my pension calculation is the reduction in life expectancy in the United States. Being American, I use the Social Security actuarial tables, and I have discovered that life expectancy has dropped by several years. I suspect this has to do with COVID-19, but regardless of the reason, with a potentially shortened lifespan, the valuation decreases.

Second Quarter Forecast

This has already been and will continue to be an expensive quarter.

The stock market thus far has been harsh to all factors. The one bright spot has been my small gold ETF position, but this is a mild retardant to the drawdown. Ex-US has also been relatively stable. However, this drawdown has already been nearly as severe as the cost of any of the spending I'm about to mention. If the drawdown continues, it will easily be greater than whatever spending we embark on.

My wife and I have decided it's time to do some remodeling and lifestyle upgrading, and we're spending on new bits of furniture and other household accouterments. It's nothing extravagant, but it's a cost. We will likely re-enter the world of TV ownership sometime in the next few months, for example. Ikea has also been padding its cash flow statements with our money.

We also plan to visit the US briefly this summer. My wife has an ill sibling, and we're taking some time to visit them. We also recently helped financially support this sibling's adult child, who had a cash crunch. Although they offered to reimburse us, I agree with Dave Ramsey that loaning money to family members is a way to hurt that relationship, so we gifted the money instead.

We also owe taxes from 2022. We don't know when the Finanzamt will hit us with the bill we know is due, but it's coming any day now.

Despite all that, we're doing well. Until next time. Stay happy and healthy.

2023 Update: New Worth, Reflections, Businesses

Staying the course worked.

When I wrote my end-of-year update for 2022, I was feeling pressure due to the severe drawdowns in our assets. 2022 was a rough year in nearly every asset class, and we were not spared. However, the choice to begin using ETFs for much of our portfolio meant that I didn't make any catastrophic choices despite the drawdowns, and that change paid off in 2023.

In 2023, I made additional changes, which have further solidified my temperament. Namely, my eliminating debt and restarting IRA contributions, I've taken steps that will pay off for decades while taking off some of the pressure to nail stock picks.

Net Worth Update

At the end of December 2022, I wrote:

However, December was also the first time that our net worth was down in every metric that I track. There are four comparisons at the top of my spreadsheet: USD month over month, EUR month over month, USD year over year, and EUR year over year. For the first time, all of these metrics were negative.

The story was very different in 2023.

Our net worth rose in December to $167,897/€152,080, which is a month-over-month rise of 6.6%/5.15%, a quarter-over-quarter rise of 13.90%/9.16%, and a year-over-year rise of 34.11%/30.10%. This represents an all-time high for our accumulated wealth.

2023 Changes

Debt and IRA

The biggest change was the decision to close out the loan I'd taken and restart my IRA contributions. This was not taken lightly, though some triggers made 2023 the year. I've mentioned those triggers before, but I'll summarize:

• A family conversation made me feel like I was being pushed into choices that I didn't agree with.
• Looking for emotional support to say "no" to family members, I found Dave Ramsey episodes.
• He's anti-debt, and I was in debt, and - after analyzing my feelings - I realized how stressed I was about it.
• His book Baby Steps Millionaires reminded me that tax-advantaged accounts are powerful tools for wealth building.

Looking back, had I not sold anything to pay for the debt reduction, I'd have more money today. But how would 2023 have felt? I didn't like that monthly payment to the loan company. I felt like our budget was overly tight because of it. It was a negative in my mental life, and although I'd have more money now had I simply persisted, I don't think I'd be as happy.

I filled up our IRA contributions for 2022 and 2023 early in the year, which meant I'd have to do the more complicated tax filing using the Foreign Tax Credit. I managed that, and it's not so bad, but U.S. tax filing remains a major net negative in our lives. Every year it's a stressful frightening experience.

Small Business People

We've been active small business people here in Germany. My wife made great strides in 2023, acquiring new customers and increasing her income. She diversified away from a single high-volume, low-paying customer and negotiated higher rates from several new clients. It was impressive.

I have several small businesses, and while they aren't able to compete with my wife's for income, they have increased our bottom lines. One of them is still in its infancy and therefore unprofitable, but I believe that will change in 2024. The other is almost pure profit. The attention is give towards them is what I might have in the past directed towards stock picking. This new focus is much more productive and fun.

This year, we've modified our budget spreadsheet to account for these varied sources of business income.

2024 Expectations

I don't know what will happen. At the end of 2022, I didn't expect that a single conversation with my sibling would so disrupt me. I didn't think I'd seriously enter this new line of business. I thought I might leave my job, which I didn't.

I know there will be disruptions, and there will be surprises. At least I hope so. If I could completely plan year 2024, that would be outrageously boring.

Until next time. Happy new year, happy saving in 2024, and stay healthy.

2023 First Half Update

2023 Second Quarter Update:

The first quarter was full of re-evaluations of financial goals and strategies and was full of fear over impending disaster in my family. Back then, we had to make difficult decisions and have difficult conversations.

The second quarter of 2023 was much milder.

New All-Time High

After a year and a half of being in a net worth drawdown, we emerged at the end of June at a new all-time high. We're just shy of $150,000 at $149,097/€136,162. That's a quarter-over-quarter rise of 10.05%/9.05%.

The 2022 bear market, although not extreme by historical standards, was the worst extended drawdown we've had to live with during our married lives. Despite some losses, there were no disasters in our portfolios, and the stress lead to some necessary reappraisals of how best to allocate savings. I'm grateful for the lesson and happy to allocate most money to an ETF/mutual fund asset mix. While my stock picking has done well this year, I feel safer knowing that all of our eggs aren't in that basket.

The drawdown was exasperated by the drawdown of our incomes. My wife has a lull in her business as she changed strategies, and my extra income opportunities at work dried up. As the market corrected, we were unable to add money in any kind of aggressive way. However, both of those states have started to change: I've found new sources for additional work, and my wife's new business strategy is starting to pay off. It's exciting.

Family Disaster Averted

After much Sturm und Drang back in January and February, it appears that PoorParent will stay put. Staying put means staying in an uncomfortable but stable situation with a family member who has health problems.

It's clear that PoorParent isn't thrilled with this, but they also don't appear to be angry at me and Sib.

Honestly, Sib did most of the heavy lifting. I helped Sib define their own boundaries and see how they weren't respecting their own limits and desires. This lack of self-respect led to Sib not respecting my limits. But once Sib understood this, they had the uncomfortable conversation with PoorParent. Thus far, admittedly, I haven't spoken to PoorParent about my worries. They haven't brought it up, and I won't either.

Portfolio Performance

My individual stock portfolio returned 19.91% in the first half. This was mostly led by Greenbrick Partners and Apple Inc. Greenbrick is now a 1 bagger. It's had astounding performance. But so has Apple! Frankly, if there's any greatest mistake I've made while investing, it's selling even one share of Apple, and unfortunately, I've sold many more than one.

The laggard was Abbvie, which is facing increasing competition from Humira biosimilars. I may add more to the position if its price nears my purchase price.

The Wiseguy Portfolio as I've implemented it is hard to measure. Because it's across three different accounts and uses Vanguard "Admiral" funds in addition to ETFs, it means that getting close to the target weights is currently very tricky. Additionally, the iteration of the portfolio I call Wiseguy 2.0, which includes REITs, didn't take place until a few months ago.

An idealized version of the portfolio returned 12.07% in the first half of 2023. That underperformed the S&P 500, which returned 16.81%.

Second Half Financial Goals

As of yesterday, I have maxed out our 2023 IRA contributions. I put the final $2,000 into the US REITs portion because I refuse to hold a REITs ETF in my taxable accounts. Currently, I'm overweight REITs and US large-cap growth and through the rest of the year, I'll be adding to gold and the small cap value buckets in my taxable account.

We're also rebuilding our emergency fund. If we aim for 6 months of spending, then we need around €16,000, which we're not close to. I'm not planning on pulling a Ramsey and devoting every euro to that goal, however, and I will simply be adding monthly sums to it in addition to other saving. That kind of single-minded focus doesn't make sense when I have plenty of assets, and the risk to my livelihood is so low in comparison to the American "at will" employment reality.

That said, having extra cash would be reassuring.

We've also begun a small down payment fund. We're not devoting large sums to it yet, but it's frustrating not having anything saved for a better living situation.

My wife suggested a dog fund. We both want a dog someday, but we're concerned about the cost, so we've begun saving for it.

Wrap Up

I don't see any disasters on the horizon. The stock markets could always take a dive, which would be both a bummer and an opportunity. No matter what, we'll keep saving as best we can without running afoul of our dual tax situation. Until next time, stay healthy and keep saving. It adds up over time!

2023 First Quarter Update

When I decided to move to a quarterly posting schedule for these updates, I did so out of fear that I was getting repetitive. How many times could I write, "Net worth was up/down a bit... Mostly it was thanks to stocks one way or the other"?

Pretty dull.

The first quarter of 2023 was not dull, however. The consequences of one conversation rippled outward and touched all areas of our financial lives.

The Texts That Launched 1,000 Ships

One Sunday in January, I got a series of texts from my sibling (hereafter Sib) regarding my poor parent (hereafter PoorParent). It was a horrible conversation full of disagreements.

I've thought about writing more details about this, but it's much too personal. Long story short, the worries I laid out in My Baby Boomer Parent is Poor are threatening us much earlier than I had anticipated. The reality for me and Sib is that supporting PoorParent right now is only possible by severely limiting our lives in other ways. It would also make it more difficult to help PoorParent in the future when more dire situations arise.

Sib agrees with me now, but getting there was an unpleasant path.

Enter Dave Ramsey

I went to YouTube and looked up advice for people in my situation. There's hardly any, which is shocking, and the only person out there really talking about the duties or lack thereof of children when it comes to supporting their elderly poor parents is Dave Ramsey. So Dave Ramsey re-entered my life for the first time since I read his book Total Money Makeover back in 2009.

Although I'm not a pure Ramsey-ite, Dave's thinking has deeply influenced mine. Many of my money concepts can be directly linked to The Total Money Makeover. I've been budgeting for that long because, well, he told me too. I've become a true budget believer, and so has my wife. Even our "Blow" category is directly taken from his budget outline. Suffice it to say, I was primed to listen to what he had to say.

One thing that became clear was that I'm allowed to say no. To use his metaphor, I'm allowed to put on my own financial oxygen mask before I help other people, and that includes my parents.

Additionally, I now suspect that Sib and I had been enabling PoorParent. We can only take so much responsibility because we were much younger, but I can look to specific choices that PoorParent made that were emotionally and/or logistically supported by us. Had we gone along with fewer of these choices, we might currently have a better situation on our hands.

Tchüss, Debt

I was taking too much risk. That giant loan I took out in August 2021 was dumb. Sure, the interest rate was rock bottom, but so what? The monthly payments were annoying, and they limited our actual choices.

In February, I mostly paid it off after selling off a bunch of my individual stock positions. There's a pre-payment penalty for nearly all German debt, so I left slightly more than three scheduled payments to avoid that trap. You'll see a big change in the assets and liabilities of our net worth chart.

My thinking about the loan was wrong from the beginning.

FOMO

Reflecting, I got the loan after visiting America and feeling FOMO. I had this sense that I should do something, which is not a great emotional place from which to make decisions.

Most of the time, as I'm learning, the adult choice is just to keep on doing smart stable things. As Dave Ramsey describes it, his baby steps 4 and onward are pretty boring. Saving for retirement takes time, dedication, and patience. It's exciting in terms of the power of compound interest, but otherwise, it's a boring process. I've listened now to many calls into his show where someone has had a windfall and wants to do something to maximize their return on that money. For most people, the correct answer is to simply pay off any debt and their mortgage, and invest in mutual funds. This advice is often unsatisfactory for the caller, however.

Since I've become much less tolerant of holding individual stocks, the cognitive dissonance of being in debt while holding individual stocks became unbearable for me. I have no idea if I'm any good at picking stocks. For someone like me, borrowing money while owning individual stocks is especially dumb. I've learned in the past that my thinking goes crazy when I leveraged a position, and sure enough, I felt perpetually crazy.

The risk I had taken was:

• Job loss risk and risk that I couldn't make the future payments
• Increased risk of emotional volatility leading to poor decisions
• Currency rate risk (borrowed in euros to buy in dollars)
• Opportunity cost since that income was tied to monthly payments

It also bothered me philosophically that I was in debt. I liked being out of debt, and it was a point of pride that I'd paid off my student loans early. Along the way, yes, I had some installment plans, but there was never any interest attached. But now, I was in debt and paying interest. Yuck.

But even those installment plans need to be a thing of the past. Making choices for future me to pay for stuff is a mean thing to do to myself. It also assumes that the future looks like the present, which is not guaranteed.

Re-enter the IRA

During my Dave Ramsey rabbit hole, I listened to the Chris Hogan book "Everyday Millionaires" and read Ramsey's "Baby Steps Millionaires". One of the statistics was that most millionaires did it by steadily adding to their 401k plans. I hadn't added to my IRA since 2012, which was my loss because the money I'd put in between 2008 and 2012 - a total of $1,750 - had quintupled.

Therefore, after a decade of avoidance and fear, I've decided to continue adding to my IRA. For expats, this is tricky but doable. I'll have to use the Foreign Tax Credit rather than the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion to prevent tax payments to the US. This is more work, but having tax-sheltered investments is too important.

Wiseguy 2.0

I'll continue adding to the Wiseguy Portfolio allocation across my various accounts. Using Portfolio Performance, this is relatively easy to do with the Asset Allocation feature.

I've made an adjustment to weightings, however, which I'm thinking of as Wiseguy 2.0. There's now a 10% weighting to REITs, now that there's a tax-sheltered place for me to put them. REITs in a taxable account are dumb dumb dumb, which is why I left them out before. Within the REIT basket is a 25% allocation to ex-US REITs, so 2.5% of the total portfolio. That may seem paltry, but the fees on the Vanguard ex-US REIT fund are high. I'd like exposure, but until the fees come down more, I can't justify a heavy weighting.

To make space for the 10%, I've reduced the bond allocation to 10% from 20%. I'm taking more risk, which means that any future drawdowns will likely be more stomach-churning. However, I'm hoping this will also lead to long-term greater returns. I can't access my IRA money for another 30 years after all.

So Wiseguy 2.0 is this:

• 25% US Small Cap Value
• 25% US Large Cap Growth
• 25% ex-US Small Cap Value
• 10% Long-term bonds (both Treasury and Corporates)
• 10% REITs (75% US/25% ex-US)
• 5% Gold

Net Worth

Image: A stacked bar chart of our net worth over time. Click to enlarge.

As of March 31, 2023, our net worth rose since December by 8.22% in USD and 6.83% in EUR to $135,357 and €124,753 respectively. Liquid net worth is $99,747.

This new chart is meant to simplify viewing. The previous style was pretty difficult to read, and this new iteration makes it clearer. It also, perhaps a bit pretentiously, uses typical business accounting terms for some items, such as "Cash and cash equivalents". "Accounts receivable" at this point means strictly dividends for which the ex-dividend date has passed.

Stock Performance

Stocks have more or less been in an uptrend. Of the Wiseguy components, US large-cap growth, gold, and bonds have all done very well. Small-cap value has performed poorly, likely as a result of banking industry volatility. The purchase of the REIT funds accidentally corresponded with a bounce for that asset class, which wasn't intentional but worked out in my favor.

Spending

In addition to the big macro money moves, we've also re-committed to following our budget. We reined in our grocery spending, cut down on subscriptions, and otherwise made choices that resulted in lower spending overall. I'm also turning reward points (classified as "intangible assets") into groceries or money as much as I can.

We did buy a plane ticket for my wife to visit her family in the States. That was necessary. However, we've declined to go on a big vacation this summer in the US. This was a secondary set of conversations with my family that were difficult, but I'm at peace about it.

Simultaneously, the elimination of the debt also eliminated the lifetime interest cost, which I had added to the liabilities side of our balance sheet. That was about €2,000.

Second Quarter Forecast

Considering how much activity there was in the past three months, it's hard to consider what might happen in the next three. Here's some of what we know:

Our heating bill has gone up a lot. We'll have to eat a big upfront cost in April, and our monthly warm rent will rise. That's a bummer, but it's the situation Germany finds itself in.

My wife and I will likely plan some modest trip for the two of us. We'll probably pay for it before the end of June.

I'm going to aggressively add to my IRA until I hit the max for 2023. $6500 is a doable number, and I hope to never miss hitting the max ever again. I doubt I'll get there by the end of June though.

The last debt payment will be gone at the end of May. Good riddance.

Until next time, stay healthy and avoid FOMO.

November 2022 Update: Electricity, Net Worth, Portfolio

We got a refund on our electricity. Hallelujah.

In 2016, I got it into my head to track our electricity in a spreadsheet. Weirdly, we're required to do our own meter readings and report them to the power company, and since the meter was right there in the apartment, I figured I'd track it. Every Sunday and first of the month, I dutifully snap a photo of the meter. Each photo's numbers gets plugged into a weekly or monthly spreadsheet, which tells me the change week over week or month over month. Add in some spreadsheet functions, and I can see how we're doing in a given year and how our usage has changed over time.

Image: Chart of average weekly electricity usage over time. Does not include heat, which is a separate bill.

Until recently, our average had steadily been moving upwards. This felt inexorable until we made some drastic changes. The main one has been reducing the shower's heat. As I've written before, this means lukewarm rather than luxurious. I also only run the shower when rinsing; while lathering up, the water is off. Both of us are in and our pretty quickly.

Long story short, we managed to save enough electricity to warrant a small refund from the power company. This was a nice boost to November and a pleasant surprise in a sea of horror stories about electricity prices.

All in all, I recommend this practice of proactive electricity usage tracking. Obviously, if I had a smart meter, this might be easier, but this current process forces me to stare at results and ponder why one week was higher or lower, which has prompted changes.

Net Worth

Image: Chart of our net worth in USD since 2013

Our net worth rose 5.33% in USD and .52% in EUR to $128,316 and €123,857 respectively. Liquid net worth stands at $99,626 and €96,164.

Euro Strength

The main driver of the discrepancy between USD and EUR returns was the strengthening euro. Last month, the euro could buy $0.98871, while now it can buy $1.036. That blunts the upward movement of gains in a USD portfolio.

It's fine by me though. One small benefit is that credit card purchases made on US credit cards are cheaper to pay off since the value of the debt has shrunk over time thanks to the currency movement. Yes, I track this.

Portfolio Performance

Image: November portfolio performance as a percentage. Green line = Wiseguy portfolio, yellow = individual US-listed stocks, red = S&P 500, blue = IRA

My portfolios, with the exception of my IRA, outperformed in November. The Wiseguy Portfolio did especially well, rising just under 8%. This was led by the strong performance of the Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF at 12.82%(!), the Vanguard Long Term Bond ETF at 8.55% and the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF at 8.45%.

Image: Breakdown of returns within the Wiseguy Portfolio in October and November vs. Vanguard's S&P 500 fund.

Portfolio Changes

Image: My IRAs in blue vs. the S&P 500 in red in 2022

After the last day of November, the trend following rules were hit, and I bought Vanguard's Total World Admiral Shares in my IRA. It is entirely possible that I'll get whip lashed out of that position if the market resumes a downward trajectory. Them's the breaks with trend following.

Near the end of November, I sold Exxon Mobile for a small profit. The proceeds were sent to the Wiseguy Portfolio at the start of December. I'm not good at holding oil extraction companies and should probably avoid them. Berkshire and the small cap ETFs have significant exposure to energy commodities as is.

Other Factors and December Outlook

We received the yearly family subsidy for my wife's piano lessons. That will be stored in our high yield savings account.

December is shaping up to be a mixed bag, savings wise. Christmas is generally expensive, but I also receive my holiday bonus. However, some of my wife's customers were laggards paying their invoices in November, which meant fewer euros being carried over to December. Some of our expenses were also unexpectedly high in November.

We expect visitors from the US for Christmas, which is worth some spending and fun. It's such a pleasure to have anyone visit us over here, and we may do some small scale Europe travel. We will certainly get some kind of Christmas tree.

We also plan to make a donation to our local food bank, whose services we personally witness since they're in our neighborhood. More than food, they provide other nourishment for those who are having bad luck in their lives.

Until next time, count your blessings and help others where you can.

July and August 2022 Updates: Travel, Inflation, Rent

In most of July and early August, I was taking advantage of my summer vacation to travel through Europe and the United States. Meanwhile, Europe's bad news kept piling up.

With power prices rising and the rivers drying up and a war and the currency falling in value, it's a worrying moment here. To put it mildly. I've been captivated by the potential for major disruptions to our lives and for the lives of millions of Europeans whose livelihoods rely on industries, which themselves rely on inputs such as natural gas and electricity, both of which have exploded in price.

What does Germany do if its major industries shut down? I don't know.

That said, even while vacationing within Europe, it all felt far away. Shops were open and happy to sell over-priced chocolates or locally made clothing. The wine and cheese in France were still excellent. Paris is still beautiful. The museums remain treasures. People were generally pleasant and happy to see us. My family who visited France loved it and some said they wanted to move there.

To be fair, when I visited the US, all of its problems felt far away too. American food is great. Everyone is nice in a way that feels increasingly foreign and yet increasingly welcome. I think "Maybe I should move back!" after I've touristed in the US, but when I speak to my younger family members about their jobs, the prospect seems less appealing.

All of them are in the rat race. All of them are working their butts off. All of them don't get enough vacation time. I didn't ask about health care, but I know what that's like. All of them are likely earning more than I do, but the price for that is enormous uncertainty and very little freedom with their time. Whenever I spoke about my job, I couldn't help but feel like I was bragging, even though I'm somewhat unhappy with my career and am considering other prospects.

But as soon as the words leave my lips, "Six weeks summer vacation.... yes, it's paid," I know I have something valuable that my working-age American family doesn't have. It's a tricky social minefield, and it's an inevitable topic of conversation because I just have so much free time in the summer. Meanwhile, my American loved ones balance seeing me with their work schedules.

We'll see though. If Germany can't manage its current troubles, it's possible that the system that supports me and my colleagues falls apart. That's unlikely, but it can't be ruled out.

Net Worth: Inflation and Stocks

Our net worth increased 7.46% in July ($123,947) and fell 2.01% in August ($121,453) in USD. In euros, it rose 9.45% in July (€121,160) and rose .44% in August (€121,697). Liquid net worth at the end of August stood at $89,890 and €90,070.

Image: Chart of our USD net worth over time. Notice the value of euro debt decreasing quickly.

The falling euro is scary. On the one hand, my euro wealth continues to rise because of my overwhelming reliance on dollar assets for my savings. On the other, I have received a large pay cut relative to the US, which I felt acutely whenever I paid for a restaurant bill in the US. Inflation in the US plus a falling euro equals pain for euro jobbers like me.

The upsides are that if there's an emergency over here, my USD cash has become more valuable in euros. Likewise, the value of my European debt has decreased significantly in dollar terms.

Stock Market

The stock market since June has been volatile. The S&P 500 rose in price in July to touch the 200 day moving average and has since fallen. My assumption is that it's in a downtrend, and so my IRA remains in a money market account. Ironically, my lack of action since February in the IRA has been the best trade of my life. The interest I earn in it has gone up over time even as the overall market continues trending downwards.

So far, despite the new downward price action, I don't feel any urge to make major portfolio changes.

My Evolving Rent Thoughts

I have to admit: I've been triggered by the rent increase we got in June. Until then, I'd never had a landlord increase their rent on me. And for him to do it then, just as all our economic realities were getting more precarious, felt especially grating.

I admit that this is irrational. He's also an investor, and investors want rising cash flows from their investments. I get it. But I don't like being a landlord's cash flow¹, and so we've been looking at buying properties again. I still hate the upfront cost of buying something here, but man, I hate having my rent raised. So I'll keep looking.

For a few weeks there, I felt like I was in a rush to buy something. But that has subsided. I've calmed down. I'm still worried about a potential rent increase next year too, but I see that our requirements for a property are specific enough that I can't and shouldn't just buy any old thing.

Other Notes: Computer, Refund, €9 ticket

In July, we bought a new computer for my wife. Her's starting crashing, and since she relies on a stable computer for her work, we bought a new MacBook Air for her. We were going to pay for this from occupational cash flow, but amazingly we finally got the second federal stimulus payment in the form of our 2020 tax return refund. Plus interest! That more or less covered the cost, and it came at a perfect time.

That said, we're going to be financially tight for awhile here. She's making a major change in her business, and the short term effects are likely to be reduced cash flow in the short term with increased cash flow later since she'll be in greater control of her time and pricing. She's being bold, and I'm happy for her.

Finally, we will both miss Germany's €9 ticket, which allowed us both to travel throughout Germany for €18 total per month in June, July, and August. It's back to the old complicated expensive system here, and we'll mourn grievously.

That's all I have for this time around. Take care of yourselves and your families. Until next time.

---

1. Especially for this landlord. I like our apartment and its location, but his management of this building leaves a lot to be desired, and we're currently fighting with him about our Nebenkosten. ↩︎

Net Worth Update: June and July, 2020

In June, our liquid net worth¹ increased by 8.01% in USD and 5.7% in EUR to $68,000 and €60,606 respectively. In July, it increased 13.67% and 9.48% to $77,298 and €66,350 respectively.

The biggest factor in both months was the stock market. Like anyone who held positions similar to the overall market, we experienced terrific growth. It is counterintuitive that in such a moment, with as much economic hardship as exists, that the stock market should be on such a tear. I honestly don't know exactly what it is that the market sees, and I won't pretend to. I listen to a lot of stock market talk, and some experts claim that this is a bubble that's likely to pop at any moment, while others say otherwise. It's pointless to try and act on this chatter. I know what my time horizon is, and I hold.

Cash is King (Sometimes)

One thing I haven't been doing, however, is buying. Our savings the past few months has gone exclusively to cash. That's not a stock market timing call but rather a series of tactical moves given the relative uncertainty of the moment. I know that we have certain large expenses in the future, but I don't know what my wife's income will be, and it's hard to guess it more than a few weeks out. Therefore, I've been preemptively saving to knock out those costs whenever they arise, in order to prevent having to scramble to pay for them from that month's cashflow. You might be thinking, "Well, duh, that's the way savings works," and you'd be right. But our situation has changed enough that we have to do this for stuff that we could previously just pay for out of cashflow.

That means saving early for tax preparation costs, estimated taxes, and large purchases. We've also been continually adding to our emergency fund. An emergency fund is basically early saving for known recurring expenses in addition to surprises, after all. One unsettling aspect of this pandemic is that my industry has been especially hard hit, and my seemingly secure job doesn't feel as secure anymore.

A couple of large cash infusions also buoyed these months' changes. In June, we deposited the stimulus check that was sent out. US expats who file their taxes were also eligible, and we were happy for the money. Secondly, my employer paid me early for August, and without any message from them, I truly don't know what that was about (new employee clicked the wrong button on the bank website maybe? I've done it).

And on top of that, because most of our cash is in the euro, the recent upward spike of the euro's value has made that lump more valuable in USD.

Vacation?

Although it's summer vacation time in Germany, we have decided to stay home. And by home, I mean our apartment in Germany. We contemplated some trips, but hotel prices in Germany weren't low enough to really make it worth our while. Outside of Germany, some prices are incredible, but we quickly wrote off getting in a plane or bus or long distance train, especially since those prices also aren't all that great.

I will say, the FOMO is real. The weather's also not been very summer-like, so it's been kind of lonely and dark. We've used the time to take care of some home improvement projects, and I've been using FaceTime more often to get in touch with American family.

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1. This includes: bank accounts, investments (excluding German private pension but including US IRAs), credit cards, rewards programs valued at 1¢ per point, cash, installment plans and any other debts. ↩︎

Net Worth Update: March, 2020

Our net worth dropped since this time in February by 12.16% in USD and 12.48% in EUR to $52,448 and €47,985 respectively.

The reason is obvious. Our stock portfolios fell precipitously as Europe and the United States responded aggressively to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Big Picture

Thankfully, I still have my salaried job, and my employer has stated that we're at no risk of dissolving. My wife's work hours have dried up considerably, but she is still working over Zoom for those clients who can still manage it. My sibling still has a job despite vast layoffs. Both parents have Social Security at least and one has a healthy retirement portfolio.

Most importantly, none of us have caught the virus yet. However, I don't know how long I can expect that. Two family members live in one of the hot-spot cities in the US. One parent is working again and coming into contact with people. I have nagged them to take precautions as far as is reasonable, and I have to trust them to take care of themselves.

As of right now, I feel like I'm in an enviable position, and I consider myself very lucky. But when I see charts like this:

Or this:

I recognize that anything that affects so many people will eventually affect me as well. It's just a matter of time, and I've been mentally preparing as best I can.

Savings Rate and Other Factors

Our savings rate of our mixed pre/post tax income was 46.3%. Easiest way to get your savings rate up is to hold expenses steady when you earn more money, and this month is clear evidence of that.

I received an outsized payment at the end of February due to some extra work I did. My employer also gave me too much money, and that will be taken out of my end-of-March payment. That will obviously hurt April's savings.

We paid estimated taxes in March. Fun fun.

We spent much too much on groceries this month. We didn't stockpile aggressively at all, but we ended up well outside of our budget.

We received a refund for overpayment of health insurance for my wife. Because she's self employed and utilizes the public system (the gesetzliche Krankenkasse), her payments are based on income and fluctuate every year.

April

April is going to be tight. I wish I had a lot more money to throw at the market or our emergency savings, but it's not going to happen unless we get one of these stimulus checks from the IRS in the next few weeks.

Good luck and stay healthy.

Take the Power Back

It's stunning how quickly everything in the world is moving due to coronavirus:

• Like many organizations, my company has suspended some operations to prevent large social gatherings.
• My wife's business has seen cancellations out of fear.
• Stock markets feel like they're properly crashing. Unlike 2018 or 2016, the S&P 500 is well below the 200-week moving average. That alone makes this look like 2008 or 2001.
• Not to mention, there's the giant oil price blowup.

I took steps weeks ago to manage my risk. I sold my lowest conviction positions, and I extinguished all my margin debt. I'm fully invested (not including our emergency fund) and don't plan on making any adjustments to my existing portfolio. I've made my bed, so now it's time to sleep in it. When I get paid, I'll continue purchasing assets and setting aside cash for our cash buffer.

But more importantly, we're having to face the very real real-life possibility that we and/or many people we love will get ill and, possibly, die. I believe it's important to simply be honest about this and begin to adjust to the reality.

I have two parents over 70. I also have two grandmothers. My sibling in the US is in a densely populated city with rising numbers of infected. My company has around 500 employees working in close contact with one another, and some are definitely high risk. My city is one of the largest in Germany, and cases are increasing here.

It's funny going to the supermarkets here and seeing sold out soy milk or pasta or toilet paper. All those purchases were made out of an attempt to prepare, as if hand sanitizer or toilet paper meant you could control the outcome. Yes, yes, wash your hands, and stop touching your face. This has long been a good standard practice, so even after coronavirus, you should keep this up.

But the preparation must be more in your mind and less in your pantry. We must think through what reality might look like in the coming weeks and months for us. Only then can we make rational choices.

You might have some risks that you need to deal with. Some social distancing is wise. Some financial risks carry "blow up" potential, so deal with them as rationally as possible and move on. However, try to avoid waving your hands and justifying poor choices -- such as selling out of all equities after a big drawdown -- out of fear. We are awfully good at justifying poor behavior, so try and resist it.

And this needn't be a dark process. I've been actively reminding myself of what I enjoy. I enjoy reading. I enjoy music. I enjoy playing guitar and taking pictures. I enjoy exercising. I love my wife. I love my family. These are all things I can have more of if I choose to.

Just as you can. Take whatever power you have and use it to love your life.

Net Worth Update: December 2019 and Year End Review

Our net worth increased in December to $59,577 and €53,624, which is a one month change of 4.36% and 3.61% respectively. That's due to my bonus, the infusion of money from a relative to subsidize my wife's music lessons, and the stock market's performance.

For the year over year view, compared to December 2018, our net worth has increased by 60.95% in USD and 65% in EUR. That's an increase of $22,562.

That's not bad, but a lot of it was dumb luck. Compared to the 2019 budget I wrote at the beginning of the year, our spending was higher in nearly every single category than planned, and our saving was lower in both categories than was planned. I wish there were an obvious reason other than just unrealistic expectations, but that's the heart of it.

Percentages

With our total savings of €7,959, we had a savings rate of 13.79%. If we were total newbs at saving starting with nothing, that would imply we'd have 51 years before retirement (according to the famous "The Shockingly Simply Math Behind Early Retirement").

So where did our money go? The top category is "Rent" at 17.78%. Since bundled into the "Rent" are several utilities, it on its own does not seem too egregious. It's not ERE-level, but I'm actually pleased at how low it is. With my regular pay-raises and Germany's strong renter protections, it should trend downward as a percent over time.

The second largest line-item is "Dentist" at 13.01%. As I mentioned often, I had some major dental work done this year, and although I expect some assistance from several sources, only one of them came through before year-end (seen in the graph as "Refunds").

After that are the "BLOW" categories. Combined, they're 12.79%. This is spontaneous money and is something of an allowance for me and my wife. I estimated that we'd need €2,400 each for the year, but in reality, we each spent around €3700.

What lies within those "BLOW" numbers? It contains our hobbies, our restaurant visits with friends, our clothing, some travel, some entertainment, some toys, and so on. It's a big category. I wish I could say that I knew how to restrain spending within it, but it's tricky. Ultimately, we know inside ourselves that we can afford certain things, so we buy them.

Under those large categories are other medium sized expense groups. "Groceries" at 6.9%, "Health Insurance" at 5.68%, "Household" at 5.19%, "Travel" at 2.41% and "Telephone" at 2.36% are the largest. Groceries have proven difficult to cut. There's not much to be done about the "Health Insurance" cost. "Household" was inflated because we bought a sofa and an iPad for my wife when her computer died. It's something of a wildcard in 2020 because I'm not sure when my computer might kick it, but until it does, I'm going to assume that this category will be lower in 2020. "Telephone" was inflated due to my iPhone purchase at the beginning of the year, which I won't repeat in 2020 absent one of us losing or killing a phone.

And "Travel" basically means plane and train tickets for vacations. It's a separate category from our commuting categories (which are so small as to be essentially meaningless). Like everything else, I planned an amount, and we spent more than I planned for. I will just plan for more this year.

Stock Performance

Since our savings rate was so low, the gains came mostly from the performance of the stock market. In December, 2018, there was something of a bear market, so my numbers were depressed. As I wrote then:

Since the majority of whatever wealth we have is in the form of stocks, we were hit hard by the sell-off in equities. Anyone paying attention to the markets this past month would have seen the kind of fast paced elevator down that market pundits have been scaring us about for years. Our savings rate didn't spare us from the damage.

But in 2019, stocks did amazingly well. My collection as a group did very well, in fact, and the turnarounds by some have been shocking. I have some very good winners, and I'm pleased with the names in the portfolio right now.

That said, I did make some mistakes. In general, my mistakes have tended to be selling too early, rather than too late. Some names I took losses on for no good reason, and with others I took profits too early and missed out even higher highs.

Simply abiding a portfolio is hard, and although I'm getting better at it, there's no guarantee that I won't futz around again with negative results.

2020 Expectations

Obviously, I have no control over the stock market, so there's no guarantee that our net worth number will be higher next year than now. But I can control our savings rate.

The biggest change will be the absence of dental costs. I'll go in for a cleaning and all that, but the big procedures are behind me for the time being. If I save that, it will result in a near doubling of our 2019 savings rate. If we cut down our "BLOW" costs, then maybe we can get even more saved.

A wildcard is the parent I mentioned in "My Baby Boomer Parent is Poor". My family has reached an inflection point there, and I wonder if 2020 is the first year I'll have to help. I hope not, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.

My wife and I have no large expenses planned for 2020. Maybe a computer, but I'm not going to rush it until it becomes absolutely necessary. We'll do some travel. We have no large-scale furniture purchases planned. My hobbies don't require any new large purchases.

So this year, I'm hoping to save over €10,000 and hopefully closer to €12-€13,000, which would be a 23% savings rate. That feels doable and maybe even beatable.

Here's wishing you and your loved ones a happy and prosperous 2020.

Net Worth Update: November 2019

Our net worth increased 3.56% in USD and 4.03% in EUR to $57,087 and €51.756 respectively.

This was a surprisingly good result considering some large expenses. Once again, the stock market performed well. Our taxable brokerage account -- excluding deposited money -- climbed about 5% during the month. The IRAs climbed 3%.

On the expenses front, I finally got the bill for the dental work, and it was as quoted and expensive. Thankfully my health insurance chipped in their part quickly after I'd paid the bill in full, which cut down the cost by a third. I still have some other expected reimbursement sources that will hopefully chip in during the next month.

Our groceries budget was again really high. We had a Thanksgiving feast with some American friends, and we chipped in on some of the costs. But I doubt that was the whole story, and I hope this isn't a new normal.

December Outlook

On the income side, I'll receive my Christmas bonus from work, which adds up to 1/3 of a full month's pay. We also expect to receive the money from my wife's relative who helps subsidize my wife's music lessons. I realize how lucky we are for that.

As mentioned, I expect to receive additional reimbursement for the dental work. It won't cover the whole cost, but it will be enough that the total cost will have been significantly brought down.

We'll have to pay our estimated taxes in December, and that will be a large hit. My wife, due to a US trip, will have worked less in November, which will lower her December income.

We also need to buy my wife a new computer since hers finally died. I'll need to write a separate post about that since that previous computer gave us excellent value over its life.

Net Worth Update: October, 2019

Our numbers increased to $55,126 and €49,753, which is a month over month rise by 5.97% and 4.44% respectively.

This was almost entirely due to the performance of the stock market. If you follow the market at all, you know that the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs in October, and that momentum brought my collection of individual names along for the ride. I'm finally back in the black, and I'm curious if it will actually stick this time or not.

We saved just under €1500 of our income, which amounts to a 34% savings rate (of the money that comes into our tax account). We overspent in October though, so that's going to cut into the amount I can save in November.

We also bought a plane ticket for my wife to visit her family in the USA. Ticket prices were reasonable, and she wants to support a family member who's going through a tough time.

Improved Groceries Spending?

Although I'd hoped we could keep our grocery bill down, we ultimately spent much more than budgeted this month. I'm still a bit confused about the result.

Part of the challenge is that I've joined a gym and am working out a lot. I need to eat more because of this, and at first, I was trying to do it with cheap bulk options like lentils, onions, oatmeal, frozen peas, etc., but my digestive system just couldn't handle it. I've eaten plenty of high fibre foods in my life, and the amount of discomfort I experienced eating these less expensive options was confusing.

I'm still trying to eat mostly cheap foods, but there's no escaping that I'm eating more of everything, and that has a cost. On the other side of the ledger, my alcohol consumption has dropped significantly, which is a major savings.

First Credit Card Product Change

I followed through with a product change from the Citi ThankYou Premier after the annual fee hit my statement. I tried asking for a retention bonus, but the bank had nothing for me, so I product changed to the Rewards+ card and got the fee refunded. We'll get to keep the accumulated points, so I'll be on the lookout for a chance to use them at some point.

Before I switched the card, I did the math, and it didn't make any sense to have two cards with annual fees. I couldn't spend enough to accumulate enough points to justify the fees on two different cards. Part of the challenge is that so much stuff in Germany still can't be paid for with a credit card. Because bank transfers are so easy here, credit cards haven't found a toe hold in all sorts of markets that would otherwise be an option for us to spend on.

November Outlook

My wife should be getting some novel payments this month from some additional work she did. I got some extra money from some extra work that I did, so money inflow isn't a problem.

That said, trips to the USA always cost something, and the family member in distress might also need some help financially. That's an unexpected turn, but we'll try to help if we can.

Aaaaaand the shoe will eventually drop on some dental costs. I'm not sure why it's taking so long though.

Until next time.

My Baby Boomer Parent is Poor

I have a ticking time bomb in my family, and it’s ticking in the background of every financial and life decision I make.

Namely, I have a baby boomer parent who has absolutely nothing saved for retirement. In fact, they're loaded with debt. That includes student loans and who knows what else. I don't have a full picture of how bad the situation is, but I don't really need it. It's bad.

And I don't know what to do about it. I keep hoping for some miracle to arrive to salvage the situation, but that's looking increasingly unlikely. The last set of potential miracles have to do with inheritances from a very elderly relative, but even then it's a long shot, and whatever inheritance there is might not cover them for any more than a decade or so.

The trouble with relying on inheritances is that they can vanish quickly due to medical costs. A person may have assets, and then suddenly they don’t any more due to the high costs of end-of-life care. Additionally, my parent has proven that they aren't especially good with money, and I don't exactly see why that would change with an inheritance.

The most likely solution is that my sibling and I will have to subsidize this parent. We're both working and earning decent middle class incomes. But adding in another recurring expense isn't something I'm relishing exactly, and it will absolutely jeopardize other life goals that I/we have.

We're Probably Not Alone in This

I think there are a lot of us millennials who are facing similar realities. It's funny: there's a lot of worry about how it's hard for young people to afford housing in modern America, but it's also true for those entering retirement age without any real assets or income streams. If you got into a home in the 70's or 80's and held onto it, you're probably sitting pretty, but if you didn't or uprooted yourself as my family often did, you might be facing serious hardship to afford housing.

Add in the fact that we millennials are behind other generations in terms of wealth due to various factors, and a poor parent becomes another financial stressor.

Potential Strife in the Family

But it is more than financial. It’s a relationship stressor. It’s the kind of thing that leads to resentment.

For example, I don't think my parent could stay where they currently live because it's just too expensive. But then where to go? And who gets to decide? And what if they refuse? And the parent lives near my sibling now, but after a move they’d have to be substantially further away due to COL issues. I don’t want them to feel banished in any way, but how can we afford the current location? It's an overwhelming series of questions, frankly, and none of the answers are likely to make anyone happy.

Naturally, this is also a potential recipe for marital strife. If one spouse wants to subsidize their parent, but the other doesn't, then who wins in that scenario? Or does everyone lose? Luckily for us (ha ha) we each have one parent who will likely be in a similar situation.

Because we're abroad, we're spared in some sense from the immediacy of the challenge, but we're also limited in the help we can offer. I can't just run over and repair something or move something. I do a fair amount of tech support over chat or FaceTime, when I could more easily just fix those problems myself were I there in person.

This naturally puts a lot of pressure on my sibling back home, and I recognize how unfair it is. However, because of my strange career, I'd be less financially helpful if I dropped everything and moved back. When I followed my current career, I couldn’t see the future and plot just how little the parent's financial situation would improve. Had I, I might have done something different. I love this person. I do not want them to suffer.

Self Sacrifice Within Limits

With that I have to say: I still have my life to live, and I don't want the latter half of my life primarily dictated by subsidizing a parent.

To sum up, this is one of those known/unknowns in my life. How bad will this be, and when will the hammer fall? I could find out any day now.

Please forgive my vague pronouns. I'm trying to maintain anonymity for myself and everyone around me while discussing this stuff, so I try to be as precise as possible about the situation and as vague as possible about the identities.

December, 2018 Net Worth Update and Year End Review

UPDATE: I made a mistake when I initially posted this. In my spreadsheet, I double counted one of our credit card liabilities. We were still down for the month, but not quite as much as I originally wrote here. The updated numbers are $37,014.97 and €32,497.78 respectively. I'll leave the post as-is though since from a high level it remains correct.

Our net worth dropped in December to $36,153.59 or €31,741.52. That's a one month change of about -4.75%.

Since the majority of whatever wealth we have is in the form of stocks, we were hit hard by the sell-off in equities. Anyone paying attention to the markets this past month would have seen the kind of fast paced elevator down that market pundits have been scaring us about for years. Our savings rate didn't spare us from the damage.

We're still well up from a year ago though, and that's the perspective I want to keep in mind. Equities are for long-terms positions. I'm not a trader, and month to month moves whether up or down can only cause heartbreak if you get too emotionally invested in them.

This month had a few novel transactions worth mentioning. I got my Christmas bonus, which I always appreciate. At the same time, we had to pay our estimated taxes to the German government for the fourth quarter, so it was basically a wash. We also received a bit of Christmas money from relatives and a larger sum from a relative specifically earmarked to support a hobby of my wife's.

Year-End Review

So how'd we do this year? Our net worth is up around 33% in dollars from one year ago. That's entirely savings-rate based since our equity positions have been all over the place. As that net worth number grows, any year over year growth is going to come increasingly from investment performance.

Investment Performance

And my investment performance this year was bad at a YTD drop of 13% (I'm only considering my taxable brokerage account). Some of it was just the way the markets moved. For people following the US markets, it was a volatile year with big drops in February and then the last months of the year, but if you were invested in just about anything outside of the US, ho ho ho, you had a rough year.

How could I have known that at the exact moment I'd begin investing in German companies, it was at the peak of the German market? I began buying in October 2017, and this chart is the daily chart of the DAX from the past year:

It's actually uncanny how some of my German purchases happened at the exact tops of their cycles. The companies seemed cheap when I bought them, and they seem cheaper now, but that doesn't mean anything in the near term. The German companies were a drag on my performance over the whole year, even when I was doing well in other parts of the portfolio.

Some of the bad performance was from me trying things and discovering I don't have the temperament for them. I tried shorting some stocks, and I tried day-trading a few times. They're not my thing, and I'll avoid those activities in the future. Doing either triggers too much adrenaline and fear in me. Regardless of investment performance, I just don't want to live like that.

I also changed investment strategies in the middle of the year. I did a lot of backtesting and research to come up with a reasonable strategy, and I implemented it. I'm trying to control risk as best I can with smart position sizing and clear sell rules, but I do recognize that this strategy can be extremely volatile. As we get older, I have some ideas for how to reduce risk further within this current strategy, but for now, I'm being aggressive within my rules.

Recognizing my previous mistakes, I wrote a long document explaining the strategy and the rules. I've already referred to this document at times when I doubted my current approach, which makes this one of the best decisions I've made all year money-wise.

Savings

For our savings, we were somewhere around 25%. It's not exceptional, but it's not horrible either. I'd like to get this number up in 2019, but there are some genuinely life-improving expenses that may need to take priority if they become a possibility.

In 2018, the big overarching expenses were our rent as well as a trip we took to the US. Moving doesn't feel worth it. Rents are going up in Germany, and by staying put, we get to keep our rent stable while prices rise around us. I've looked at smaller apartments in our neighborhood, and their prices are approaching ours despite their smaller size. We could move further away, but our life satisfaction would plunge. Plus, my wife doesn't want to move, and neither do I.

After deliberation, I am going to the US this summer. I bought tickets using credit card points, and my wife and I will take our trips separately. I'm not thrilled about that entirely, to be honest, but the cost savings are enormous to having more focused trips back rather than larger multi-family tours. She can also work while I'm in the US and vice versa, so there's less opportunity cost.

We saved a bit on our tax preparation costs too. There are some tax people recommended to expats like us who speak English, but ouch they can charge a lot. They're very good, so don't get me wrong, but at some point you have to ask if what you're getting is worth the unusually high price. In our case, we were getting our taxes back in two weeks (fast) and we could communicate in English. But we speak German, so why not find someone less expensive who's good enough?

We could also do our own taxes, but for now I'm more comfortable with a professional in Germany on our side, and I'll keep doing my own US tax return.

So there's a wrap-up of the year for this abroad saver. I've learned a lot this year, and here's hoping for a more effective and smarter 2019. Cheers and have a happy new year.

CC Award Update

We got the award.

In an earlier post, I expressed some reservations about these big awards and the minimum spend required to achieve them. I still feel that, and my wife still feels that. We did drastically reduce our planned expenses. We don't like feeling incentivized to make big purchases.

But I still wanted the award for reasons I'll explain later, so I found a method of manufactured spending to make it work. There aren't many available to us Americans abroad, but there are some, and I took advantage.

The manufactured spend did cost something as a percentage of the spend, so it wasn't free. Basically, it's a cost for the accumulation of these points. I think it's better than buying a bunch of expensive stuff totaling $4000.

Why do it at all though? The basic calculation in my head was something like this: we are going to travel to the United States again at some point in the next two years, so therefore it's worth spending a little, to save much more later. The return is pretty good in this case (around $70 spent to save between $600-$1000 later). Even if I later eat the annual fee, the return is decent.

The reality is that we're going to visit family in the US at some point. It's important to both of us, and despite any savings goals we have, it's not worth sacrificing relationships or missing seeing child relatives grow up. Next summer we'll suffice with FaceTime, but the next year we'll almost certainly be heading back.

Or we'll help relatives who aren't as financially well off come visit us. It is much cheaper for us to pay to fly someone here, than for both of us to fly to the US and find accommodation and transportation.

Will we do this again? Maybe. I'm looking at other card award possibilities, but the trouble with manufactured spending is that it's kind of skirting the rules. I prefer to draw as little attention to myself as possible regarding my American financial accounts, and manufactured spending can open me up to closer inspection. I might do this with another similar card and then focus on things like hotel cards that provide free nights automatically. Since hotel costs were a high proportion of our last visit, cutting down on that would be worthwhile.

Or maybe I won't. I could just continue to add points to this card that I have and otherwise use normal German payment methods to get by. Germany doesn't have the same glut of strategies that the US has, but it has a few, and those might be enough to both satisfy the points accumulating itch and to keep things simple.