2023 First Quarter Update

When I decided to move to a quarterly posting schedule for these updates, I did so out of fear that I was getting repetitive. How many times could I write, "Net worth was up/down a bit... Mostly it was thanks to stocks one way or the other"?

Pretty dull.

The first quarter of 2023 was not dull, however. The consequences of one conversation rippled outward and touched all areas of our financial lives.

The Texts That Launched 1,000 Ships

One Sunday in January, I got a series of texts from my sibling (hereafter Sib) regarding my poor parent (hereafter PoorParent). It was a horrible conversation full of disagreements.

I've thought about writing more details about this, but it's much too personal. Long story short, the worries I laid out in My Baby Boomer Parent is Poor are threatening us much earlier than I had anticipated. The reality for me and Sib is that supporting PoorParent right now is only possible by severely limiting our lives in other ways. It would also make it more difficult to help PoorParent in the future when more dire situations arise.

Sib agrees with me now, but getting there was an unpleasant path.

Enter Dave Ramsey

I went to YouTube and looked up advice for people in my situation. There's hardly any, which is shocking, and the only person out there really talking about the duties or lack thereof of children when it comes to supporting their elderly poor parents is Dave Ramsey. So Dave Ramsey re-entered my life for the first time since I read his book Total Money Makeover back in 2009.

Although I'm not a pure Ramsey-ite, Dave's thinking has deeply influenced mine. Many of my money concepts can be directly linked to The Total Money Makeover. I've been budgeting for that long because, well, he told me too. I've become a true budget believer, and so has my wife. Even our "Blow" category is directly taken from his budget outline. Suffice it to say, I was primed to listen to what he had to say.

One thing that became clear was that I'm allowed to say no. To use his metaphor, I'm allowed to put on my own financial oxygen mask before I help other people, and that includes my parents.

Additionally, I now suspect that Sib and I had been enabling PoorParent. We can only take so much responsibility because we were much younger, but I can look to specific choices that PoorParent made that were emotionally and/or logistically supported by us. Had we gone along with fewer of these choices, we might currently have a better situation on our hands.

Tchüss, Debt

I was taking too much risk. That giant loan I took out in August 2021 was dumb. Sure, the interest rate was rock bottom, but so what? The monthly payments were annoying, and they limited our actual choices.

In February, I mostly paid it off after selling off a bunch of my individual stock positions. There's a pre-payment penalty for nearly all German debt, so I left slightly more than three scheduled payments to avoid that trap. You'll see a big change in the assets and liabilities of our net worth chart.

My thinking about the loan was wrong from the beginning.

FOMO

Reflecting, I got the loan after visiting America and feeling FOMO. I had this sense that I should do something, which is not a great emotional place from which to make decisions.

Most of the time, as I'm learning, the adult choice is just to keep on doing smart stable things. As Dave Ramsey describes it, his baby steps 4 and onward are pretty boring. Saving for retirement takes time, dedication, and patience. It's exciting in terms of the power of compound interest, but otherwise, it's a boring process. I've listened now to many calls into his show where someone has had a windfall and wants to do something to maximize their return on that money. For most people, the correct answer is to simply pay off any debt and their mortgage, and invest in mutual funds. This advice is often unsatisfactory for the caller, however.

Since I've become much less tolerant of holding individual stocks, the cognitive dissonance of being in debt while holding individual stocks became unbearable for me. I have no idea if I'm any good at picking stocks. For someone like me, borrowing money while owning individual stocks is especially dumb. I've learned in the past that my thinking goes crazy when I leveraged a position, and sure enough, I felt perpetually crazy.

The risk I had taken was:

• Job loss risk and risk that I couldn't make the future payments
• Increased risk of emotional volatility leading to poor decisions
• Currency rate risk (borrowed in euros to buy in dollars)
• Opportunity cost since that income was tied to monthly payments

It also bothered me philosophically that I was in debt. I liked being out of debt, and it was a point of pride that I'd paid off my student loans early. Along the way, yes, I had some installment plans, but there was never any interest attached. But now, I was in debt and paying interest. Yuck.

But even those installment plans need to be a thing of the past. Making choices for future me to pay for stuff is a mean thing to do to myself. It also assumes that the future looks like the present, which is not guaranteed.

Re-enter the IRA

During my Dave Ramsey rabbit hole, I listened to the Chris Hogan book "Everyday Millionaires" and read Ramsey's "Baby Steps Millionaires". One of the statistics was that most millionaires did it by steadily adding to their 401k plans. I hadn't added to my IRA since 2012, which was my loss because the money I'd put in between 2008 and 2012 - a total of $1,750 - had quintupled.

Therefore, after a decade of avoidance and fear, I've decided to continue adding to my IRA. For expats, this is tricky but doable. I'll have to use the Foreign Tax Credit rather than the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion to prevent tax payments to the US. This is more work, but having tax-sheltered investments is too important.

Wiseguy 2.0

I'll continue adding to the Wiseguy Portfolio allocation across my various accounts. Using Portfolio Performance, this is relatively easy to do with the Asset Allocation feature.

I've made an adjustment to weightings, however, which I'm thinking of as Wiseguy 2.0. There's now a 10% weighting to REITs, now that there's a tax-sheltered place for me to put them. REITs in a taxable account are dumb dumb dumb, which is why I left them out before. Within the REIT basket is a 25% allocation to ex-US REITs, so 2.5% of the total portfolio. That may seem paltry, but the fees on the Vanguard ex-US REIT fund are high. I'd like exposure, but until the fees come down more, I can't justify a heavy weighting.

To make space for the 10%, I've reduced the bond allocation to 10% from 20%. I'm taking more risk, which means that any future drawdowns will likely be more stomach-churning. However, I'm hoping this will also lead to long-term greater returns. I can't access my IRA money for another 30 years after all.

So Wiseguy 2.0 is this:

• 25% US Small Cap Value
• 25% US Large Cap Growth
• 25% ex-US Small Cap Value
• 10% Long-term bonds (both Treasury and Corporates)
• 10% REITs (75% US/25% ex-US)
• 5% Gold

Net Worth

Image: A stacked bar chart of our net worth over time. Click to enlarge.

As of March 31, 2023, our net worth rose since December by 8.22% in USD and 6.83% in EUR to $135,357 and €124,753 respectively. Liquid net worth is $99,747.

This new chart is meant to simplify viewing. The previous style was pretty difficult to read, and this new iteration makes it clearer. It also, perhaps a bit pretentiously, uses typical business accounting terms for some items, such as "Cash and cash equivalents". "Accounts receivable" at this point means strictly dividends for which the ex-dividend date has passed.

Stock Performance

Stocks have more or less been in an uptrend. Of the Wiseguy components, US large-cap growth, gold, and bonds have all done very well. Small-cap value has performed poorly, likely as a result of banking industry volatility. The purchase of the REIT funds accidentally corresponded with a bounce for that asset class, which wasn't intentional but worked out in my favor.

Spending

In addition to the big macro money moves, we've also re-committed to following our budget. We reined in our grocery spending, cut down on subscriptions, and otherwise made choices that resulted in lower spending overall. I'm also turning reward points (classified as "intangible assets") into groceries or money as much as I can.

We did buy a plane ticket for my wife to visit her family in the States. That was necessary. However, we've declined to go on a big vacation this summer in the US. This was a secondary set of conversations with my family that were difficult, but I'm at peace about it.

Simultaneously, the elimination of the debt also eliminated the lifetime interest cost, which I had added to the liabilities side of our balance sheet. That was about €2,000.

Second Quarter Forecast

Considering how much activity there was in the past three months, it's hard to consider what might happen in the next three. Here's some of what we know:

Our heating bill has gone up a lot. We'll have to eat a big upfront cost in April, and our monthly warm rent will rise. That's a bummer, but it's the situation Germany finds itself in.

My wife and I will likely plan some modest trip for the two of us. We'll probably pay for it before the end of June.

I'm going to aggressively add to my IRA until I hit the max for 2023. $6500 is a doable number, and I hope to never miss hitting the max ever again. I doubt I'll get there by the end of June though.

The last debt payment will be gone at the end of May. Good riddance.

Until next time, stay healthy and avoid FOMO.

Self-Assessment: Early Coronavirus Edition

Now that our situation has settled into our new reality, which I'll call "Semi-Self-Imposed Lockdown," I have some time to think through our position and evaluate what's going well, and what's not going so well.

What we did well leading up to this crisis

• We have an emergency fund. I don't think it's large enough, but I'll get into that with the critiques section.
• We have a stable income. My job is such that I am unlikely to be laid off during this crisis. My wife's work scales up and down, which makes it more vulnerable, but there's no point where she's "fired": work will simply start to come back over time. Because of her stability via my income, she may come out of this with an even stronger position.
• We have liquid investments that could be turned into cash if necessary. I really don't want to turn them into cash, but if it were absolutely necessary, we could probably survive a year off of our current investments.
• We always tended to buy large amounts of shelf-stable food. We still had to go to the grocery store a few times at the start, but we could have eaten our stores of stuff if we felt it wasn't worth the risk.
• We have a large amount of unused credit on American credit cards. If we had to, we could run up a giant credit card bill. It's wouldn't be ideal, but having credit is better than not having it.
• We live in a country with a social safety net and a willingness to help its residents.

Critiques

• Our emergency fund wasn't large enough. Currently, we could last a month to two months with our emergency fund. Despite my employment stability, it's not a 100% guarantee that I come out the other side of this with a job if the German economy collapses for years. Although I'm unlikely to lose my job, I am also unlikely to easily get a new job quickly if I lose this one.
• We don't own our own home outright. Renting has long seemed the wise course of action, but not having to make rent payments would go a long way towards easing my mind.
• We don't have enough over-the-counter drugs. We have aspirin and some anti-histamines, but we have no expectorants, NSAIDS other than aspirin, acetaminophen, not to mention rubbing alcohol. The German Apotheke system is great when you get a prescription, but it makes getting certain normal items more challenging than in the US.
• My investment portfolio is not diversified enough amongst asset classes. I should be holding some bonds, for example, and I'm not.
• I came into this with margin debt. Holding margin debt years into a long-run bull market is dumb. Full stop.
• I underestimated the risk of pandemic to my investment portfolio and to my life.
• We should have larger food stores. They sell giant bags of rice here, and we should probably always have at least one. Likewise lots of pasta. Likewise lots of soy milk (the cartons keep for a long time at room temperature). The risk isn't so much that we'd run out of food due to shortages, but instead it's risky going outside right now to stand in a supermarket line. Minimizing grocery store trips is important right now.

Some Action Steps

First, I need to separate out our savings into clearer buckets. I've been dumping everything into the Tagesgeldkonto (savings account), even though I'd mentally earmarked it for taxes or tax prep costs. One account should be strictly for the emergency money, and it should get steady contributions to it until it reaches the famed 6-months-of-expenses level. It's possible that FATCA will make this more difficult than it should be.

Second, we should be saving money to buy property. That needn't have a specific end date, but it's one of those things that gives us optionality should a compelling offer arise. Somewhere I read that Ramit Sethi saves some money to buy a house/apartment not because he definitely wants to buy one but because having the option is worth it.

Third, I need to go to the Apotheke and pick up some useful over-the-counter drugs. I could also order them online.

Fourth, I should build a 10% position in long-term bonds. I can buy individual bonds in Interactive Brokers no problem. The interest rates are garbage, but they provide stability and rebalancing potential in terrible stock market situations. And at the end, you get your money back.

Fifth, I shouldn't use margin.

Sixth, this blog post is my attempt to come to terms with pandemic risk.

Seventh, honestly it would be irresponsible to try and build up large amounts of food storage right now due to the general run on the grocery stores that's happening. But once the shopping situation improves, we should get on that.

Rethink Risk

Lastly, I need to reevaluate risk. I'm not going to do that by selling stocks right now. That moment has passed. But the way I was using my money was clearly riskier than I appreciated or wanted.

I have to find a new way to judge my risk tolerance and build a portfolio of assets that match it. At the same time, this crisis will subside, and we all have to make sure that we're not just fighting the last war but imagining what new surprises might come our way.

Net Worth Update: February, 2020

From last month's update:

Our February budget right now is aiming for a 22.6% savings rate, so if the market holds still for a month, we're looking at a net worth change of ~€1000-€2000.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Instead, our net worth declined to $59,706/€54,826, which is a decline of 4.3% and 3.07% respectively.

Stocks Plunge

The reason is clear. In the last weeks of February, and especially in the last week, the international stock markets plunged. My portfolio went down right alongside it.

The reason for the drop is typically blamed on the outbreak of the coronavirus. That may have been the catalyst, but it's also true that the markets had been running up in valuation, and there was likely going to be something that triggered a pullback in any case. There's no way to run that alternate experiment though, so nothing is certain.

What is certain, is that I saw that the risk was real at the beginning of the week and began unloading my lowest conviction positions. Something told me that heading into this with margin debt wasn't a great idea, so I trimmed that back, and as of this writing, I'm not using margin at all.

This process has actually been very enlightening, because it's helped me see what gives me confidence in positions during difficult situations. Why are some positions that are in drawdowns fine to hold while others in drawdowns grate on my psyche? It was irritating to sell those positions, to be sure, but the money was lost when I bought them, because I didn't buy them for good reasons. I also sold some things for a profit, and again, these were positions that were my least confident positions. But whether something is in drawdown or at a profit isn't necessarily what gives me confidence.

The past few years has been showing me what it looks like to have confidence in positions. I'm not a professional money manager, so finding confidence to hold individual companies might arise from something different in myself than a professional might have. Something else has to grab me about a position to make it worth the stress of owning it.

Anyway, I think I'll write more about this idea in the future.

Savings Rate

We achieved a savings rate of our mixed pre/post tax income of around 31.5% in February, which was pretty good for us! It is disappointing that the money saved seemed to be fed into the markets with very little return, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

I mentioned last month that my wife wants to buy a piano, so we're saving up the required money over the next year. I couldn't stomach the idea of cutting from our asset-building savings to save up for it, so it's coming from both of our BLOW budgets.

March

Who knows what's going to happen. As I said, I'm out of margin debt as of this writing, partially because I got such a large payment from my company at the end of February. I'm still waiting on more dental stuff refunds, so one day that will come.

But the truth is the markets will determine what happens over the next month. I've put in the money, and now I have to wait just like everyone else. Much as I hate to see past money lose value, my future money would appreciate lower asset prices, so I'm of two minds regarding what I want.

Tja, wir sehen mal.

Net Worth Update: June, 2019

In June, our net worth increased in USD 1.81% to $47,921 and in EUR 0.29% to 42.110€.

The big factors in the move this month were as follows:

• Good stock market performance. Although, in my personal portfolio, we haven't totally recovered from the May drop, the performance plus our savings were strong enough to offset some big expenses.
• We saved around 20% of our cash flow, split between the Tagesgeld account (normal savings) and the brokerage. I'm using the term "cash flow", because I get paid in post-tax money, and my wife gets paid pre-tax money. I could try to include my pre-tax withholdings.... but nah. I'll start in 2020 when I update my budget spreadsheet. Cash flow it is.
• We made a big payment to the German government for estimated taxes.
• I made a large purchase of a used item for a hobby that I'm hoping to turn into a side income stream. That was around €1.200. I have some things that I hope to sell in the next couple of months to help offset the purchase.

Year-Over-Year Tells Its Own Story

It's funny, that is a very small looking percentage change, but I also track the year over year numbers (YOY), and those show just how steady growth over time can lead to big changes. From one year ago, our net worth is up 51.61% and 55.21% from $31,608 USD and €27.132 EUR, respectively. This is after a series of (in USD) smaller changes of 9.77%, 3.61%, -1.62%, 1.98%, 5.24%, -2.49%, 17.49%, 7.58%, 1.31%, 3.73%, -4.26%, and this latest 1.81%.

That's one reason I write these updates. I'm doing this anonymously, and it's not to brag or show off that I have some saved money. Instead it's to document how small changes over time lead to big changes that are counter-intuitive.

Over this last year, compounding had almost nothing to do with the YOY change. At my level of wealth, savings is the biggest factor in terms of wealth growth. My actual stock market returns are basically zilch over the last year. I'm hoping that changes, but my activities regarding saving should be biased towards a) earning more and b) saving more vs. c) earning higher returns.

July Expectations

This will be an expensive month:

• We paid our tax advisor for two separate items.
• We paid the government to reapply for our work visas. It's surprisingly expensive.
• I'm taking a trip to the U.S. later in the month. I'll do what I can, but it will cost money.
• I might have some random bits of income coming in from small gigs. We'll see.
• My wife is working fewer hours because of the usual summer slow down.
• We are expecting a tax refund (!!!), but we won't get that until August most likely.

Out of Levers at my Current Job

I've hit a kind of mental stumbling block recently. I've run out of levers to pull at my job.

What I mean by "levers": when I look at my budget, I see places where I can focus to save more. By making a choice over here, I can cut our grocery bill. By doing x I can cut the electricity bill. If x then y. Onwards and onwards.

With a career, there are similar levers to pull. I can network. I can work harder or smarter. I can simply be better at a given task.

When thinking about levers, the basic concept is that with the effort, one should expect to see some result, and the result should ideally scale with the effort at a minimum.

At my job, I earn a salary and then additional money from some extra work that sometimes comes my way. I don't get to decide when I get this work, and the value that I get monetarily is highly variable. But I get this work because I'm reliable and have given a lot of effort when I've been given the opportunities to do it. In this case it's "if x then maaaaaybe y".

This December, I earned the most money from this extra work that I may ever earn from it from one assignment. And it was exhausting. My wife says that when I began, my stress level jumped up, and it didn't come down for months. I put so much effort and personal pride on the line for this extra work, and there's no moving up from here. I know what kind of additional extra work I'll get this next year, and it's not like I'll be rewarded with more pay as a consequence of my previous efforts. I got the money, and now it's on to the next thing, and the next thing doesn't reflect the previous effort I've given at all.

I find this incredibly frustrating, and I don't know what to do about it. On the one hand, I could change jobs, but due to the homogenization and unionization of this particular industry in Germany, it is unlikely that the situation will be meaningfully different elsewhere. Most likely, I'd just find myself in the same or worse situation. At the very least, at this job, I get the extra work, but I've gotten to this point after years of credibility building.

Starting elsewhere, I'd be beginning all over.

Not to mention, moving is expensive. I'd need a guaranteed upgrade to make it worth it. But again: the homogenization in the industry makes that unlikely. Where I am now has a funny balance of decent pay and relatively low cost of living. I could try for the same job in one of the larger German cities, but the COL would jump.

In summary: I've run out of levers at this job. I don't think I can push harder and make more money from it. There has to be some kind of paradigm shift to resolve this inner turmoil of mine. Some ideas:

• Drastically reduce spending. Go total LeanFIRE on our current circumstances.
• Find a side hustle. That's currently hard for me because I'm on a visa, and starting side businesses in Germany requires entering into the bureaucracy. This will be a better possibility once I get the German equivalent of a green card and get my permanent residency.
• Change careers. Not sure what that would be, and I'm not sure if I'd want to do it in Germany.
• Enter into a similar career within the same industry that might lead to better future opportunities. It's very risky in this particular industry.
• Take it easy and enjoy the work/life balance I have and be more cautious on how much personal stake I take in my job.

Some comments about the second and last points. I have a colleague - also an immigrant to Germany - who does his job but who has officially refused to take any of the extra work. Instead, he's built up a portfolio of rental properties that he owns and manages.

It's obvious that those properties are what he really cares about professionally-speaking, but he puts in his time at our employer and keeps his personal investment low. Meanwhile, he puts in back-breaking work on the properties. Those levers make sense and justify the effort: make an improvement on one area, and he can raise the rent or sell the property for more later. If x then y.

I used to resent him for his lackadaisical attitude towards the job we share, but maybe he has the right idea. Or at least, there's part of his strategy that I should adapt and adopt. Namely, I should back myself out of so much personal investment in the job. They aren't going to meaningfully reward me for anything beyond a certain point, and I need to find that point and live there.

And I need to develop something on the side. I don't know if rental property is that thing, since the American tax consequences might be awful (sigh), but I need to explore.

January 2019 Net Worth Update

Since December 26, our net worth rose 17.5% to $43,488. In EUR it rose 17.3% to €38,114. Here's what lead to that result.

In December, I received an elevated payment from my employer due to some extra work I did. This essentially doubled my salary for the month. This money went various places:

• I paid off a medical bill that I'd been paying monthly. I'm hoping to reap a tax deduction from it.
• I bought some stocks.
• We bought a new iPhone when my wife's five and a half year old phone died after a tragic meeting with some water.
• We bought some furniture.
• We bought a coffee maker.

Now, you'll notice not all of this is savings. Sometimes it feels right to spend money. I'm not Early Retirement Extreme. But there's some logic here.

Telephone use is broadly tax deductible in Germany. I'll be able to deduct the cost of this phone over the next three years. Meanwhile, I'm hoping to keep it in our household for at least six or seven. This is one of those areas where we're willing to occasionally spend some money, so we did. The only thing I regret is that I made the purchase using an American credit card when the exchange rate made the euro unusually strong against the dollar, and it's unlikely to reach that rate again before I have to pay the card off.

As for the furniture, this particular upgrade was something we'd contemplated for several years. It wasn't excessively extravagant, but it was unusually expensive for us. I think we're done though with any other major home upgrades for a while, so I don't foresee any other such purchases in our immediate future.

The coffee maker will undoubtedly save us electricity (already shown in my electricity tracking spreadsheet), and it wasn't all that expensive. We'd been making coffee using a pour over method that required water heated on the stovetop. Once poured, the coffee would cool down quickly. The new maker uses less power to heat the water to begin with and then delivers the coffee into a thermally insulated carafe. The coffee is still warm in the late afternoon, meaning less coffee needs to be made in a day, thus saving electricity and grounds.

Note: it's funny what cultures are willing to spend money on. Coffee making in Germany, and likely in Europe as a whole, is an activity where people will spend hundreds of euros on a coffee maker. Some friends of mine have a coffee maker that's just under €1000. Ours was around €55. But the idea of convenient instant coffee is very pervasive here, and if you're not into instant coffee, then that often means a push button machine that takes coffee pods or grinds the beans on demand and coughs up a single cup of coffee.

Stocks did well this month, which boosted our numbers much more than our savings alone did. I don't know what to think of the stock market right now, so it's entirely possible that when I write this update for February, we'll have suffered another major drawdown. The last year has taught me to not get used to up days too much, because they reverse abruptly.

Forecast for the next few months: since I bought everything on credit cards, I'll be paying those off from our cash flows in February and March. That will impact those months' savings rates, but the cards will be fully paid off on time, and since this is a new awards credit card, we should see the bonus hit in February.

There are also some bureaucratic costs that we'll unfortunately have to pay because our tax statement from the government is taking so long to get back to us. It's easy to wander into those when you're a foreigner living abroad and don't entirely understand the system.

Net Worth: October 2018

Our net worth spreadsheet gets updated on the 26th of every month. I chose this date because it's deep enough into the month that we've likely made most of our payments for the month, so that whatever remains is the accumulated surplus. I could inflate the numbers by doing the calculations right after my pay period, but that seems self-defeating to me.

For October 2018, our combined total net worth was $36,070.18 or €31,612.78.

Composition

Since this is the first of these posts, I should describe what makes up our net worth spreadsheet.

There's a U.S. dollar section and a euro part. Each one contains the following:

• Bank accounts, including checking and savings accounts.
• Credit card accounts.
• Investment accounts (currently USD only).
• Loans and other lump-sum liabilities.
• An "Other" sections, which includes rounded petty cash as well as the estimated value of loyalty programs.

These are added together, and along with the prevailing EURUSD exchange rate, I calculate the value in dollars and euros. Since this spreadsheet has data from 2013, some accounts are closed, but the rows remain in the spreadsheet in order to maintain their data. Some things that aren't there that may eventually make an appearance are:

• Physical Assets. We currently don't have any physical assets that are worth adding to the spreadsheet (cars, houses).
• Pensions et al. I haven't added my pension from my German job. I haven't figured out a good way to do it yet. Likewise Social Security or the German Rentenversicherung.

This is a complete net worth spreadsheet and not a true FIRE net worth spreadsheet, but it's easy enough to calculate those numbers with a few clicks in the spreadsheet. Just Control/Command click the necessary accounts, and I'm good to go.

Up top, I have a couple of interpretations of the data in discrete cells. Namely, what is 4% of our worth? If it's lower than $40k, then it's shaded red, and if it's higher, then it's shaded green. It's definitely shaded red. I also have a sheet that calculates the Millionaire Next Door categories "Average Accumulator of Wealth" and "Prodigious Accumulator of Wealth" values for us and how much we're below/above those amounts. If our wealth is below the "Average Accumulator", it's also shaded red, which it definitely is right now.

Those two items are purely reminders of long-term goals and reminders just how much needs to be saved rather than being explicit thresholds.

Factors Affecting Current Net Worth

The biggest factors that affected this month's net worth change is the stock market. I'm a long only investor, and October has been pretty rough on us. Additionally, most of my portfolio is value stocks, and those prices have been getting crushed. The "growth" stocks also suffered but not nearly as much. I also have some positions in German companies, and Germany's stock market has been lagging for about a year.

Because of this volatility, my tax deferred retirement accounts and my taxable brokerage account fell several percent. We saved a good amount of money this month, but the market mostly netted the change to zero.

Funnily enough though, because the euro fell against the dollar, the value of these accounts rose in value in euros, even as they fell in dollars. Silver lining?

This month, I began to calculate the estimated value of loyalty programs. I'm calculating the various points as being worth ¢1 a piece. It doesn't add a lot of value to net worth, but those points have some kind of value, so I'd might as well add them. I'm not sure if it's worth adding them in for past months, since it's such a small value (around $1k).

Regarding credit cards and loans, none of that costs us interest. We currently never carry a balance, and the one "loan" is an installment plan from a dentist that doesn't charge any interest. In the beginning of the spreadsheet, we did have interest-accumulating accounts due to student loans and the cost of moving abroad, but those are long gone.

So there's the first of hopefully many updates.

Getting Used to Market Drops

In the past week and a half, I've lost more money in the markets (nominally) than I ever have. I wasn't investing in 2000 or 2008, and I cashed out the few stocks I had in 2015 to help pay off the student loans before that year's turbulence hit. Right now, I'm sitting on a large net loss that I predict will become larger.

With the fall yesterday, the S&P 500 looks like it will close below the ten-month moving average. This is a fairly rare event, and it's one of those possible triggers for trend-following people to close their positions and wait things out. I'm not going to do that, but I am and have been girding myself emotionally for the potential of a big drawdown.

I don't really feel any panic about this. Maybe I'm fooling myself, and if there's a 50% drawdown, I could conceivably panic. But I suspect I won't.

Tempered by past panics

In the past year, my tolerance for big drops has improved. I had my first taste about a year ago when one of my large holdings dropped by 16% in a day and then kept falling. I panic sold, and the holding eventually recovered, much to my chagrin.

After that I held more doggedly through big drops and was rewarded. I hated holding, but I did it, and one big draw down became a big winner, which I sold for a profit when the price appreciation looked too good to be true.

And then 2018 came, and suddenly big drops for some names didn't recover. Currently, I'm sitting on some securities that are very much drawn down, and the speed with which their plummets happened feels a bit punitive. When I described how one holding has fallen 40% since April on no real news, a friend laughed and said, "It's because God hates you."

But there's also something irrational about the plummets. Many of them are falling not because of their current actual performance but because of fears of future performance or fears of their markets being encroached by newer technology players. Fair enough. But the penalties in many of these cases are extremely pessimistic, and extreme pessimism can equal good value opportunities if the world doesn't fall apart. Which is admittedly a big "if" right now.

Backtests

One exercise that also helped gird me mentally was all the backtesting I did. There are some market drops that can be mostly avoided. The dot-com bubble was one such example. If you'd bought value at that point, you breezed through that basically unscathed.

Meanwhile, 2008 was a different beast altogether. If you're long-only, the only real way to dodge 2008 was to not be there. But if you weren't there in 2008, you probably weren't there in March 2009, and if you were there in March 2009, you were rewarded. Big time.

It's not easy. But it does show that the big drops are opportunities if you're buying. And they're also something to plan for.

Dreams of cheap prices

So there's a part of me that wants to see prices really fall. Like, c'mon lads, let's do this. Since I'm still earning money, I'd love for my future money to meet much lower prices. The CAPE ratio is still high, and if we think it has any predictive power at all, all of us who are buying securities right now should be praying for it to fall.

The only people who should be hoping for higher prices are those who aren't buying anymore or who are mega-rich. Higher prices don't help young people. Higher prices don't help savers. Think about how much you've already saved vs. what you will save in the future. Which number is bigger? If it's the latter, then you should want an 80% drawdown to happen (as long as you get to keep your job) because the compounding effects of that money will be so much greater.

So to wrap up, I've been training my brain to not get too distressed about this. There's some distress, not going to lie, but it's not panic, and if I'm not panicking now considering the amount of money I've lost, I doubt I'll panic later.

Churning Isn't Worth it for Us

After talking with my wife, we're going to back off on the card churning/travel-hacking thing. When we spoke, she was totally in alignment with me and expressed similar concerns that I mention below.

Sometimes you have to just admit that something isn't worth it. We're trying to build a deep savings habit. Habits take time and effort, and credit card rewards disrupt the savings habit.

Encouraged Spending

I found myself looking for things to spend money on. If I'd ever had a thought floating in my mind soup about something I'd like to buy, I began telling myself that I'd planned buying it all along. Now was indeed the time to do it since we had the new card. That way I could get to the end of the process and say, "We only spent money we meant to," even though it probably wasn't true.

I want to think about ways of saving money rather than spending money, and I don't want to think that spending comes with big rewards. 

Expensive Thinking

I found myself angling for more expensive solutions than I'd otherwise accept in order to meet the minimum spend. Every purchase was anchored to the number $4000. I reserved a hotel for a lot more money than I would if I'd purchased it with my normal credit card. I looked at brand new high-end products when used or otherwise less expensive items would meet our needs.

Luxury Dependence

These high end credit cards are trying to get us used to the idea of luxury, and luxury is a weakness. Airport lounges, high-end hotels, first-class airplane tickets, speedy security checks, elite status, and metal cards are all nice, but they clearly want the card user to become accustomed and dependent on these niceties.

I don't want to feel like I'm entitled to that stuff. One day these cards might not be so generous with their perks, but the luxury dependance would likely remain. And then you're trapped. 

Points Aren't True Assets

Points are kind of like assets, but not really. The issuing company can change the rules whenever they want. The airlines can jack up their fuel surcharges. The points accumulate no income, and their value doesn't appreciate with time. As far as I can tell, there are no laws protecting you as a points holder.

If we spend a bunch of money now to get the bonus within the next month, we'd be spending today's money in order to save money potentially about a year from now. That's putting lot of faith that the points will be worth something then, and it's a lot of faith that the money that I could have saved today couldn't have been used in a better way. 

Stress

It was causing me stress, and that sucks. I don't want to resent my wife if she didn't put some spend on the card. I don't want my afternoon ruined if the card machine at the grocery store doesn't work. I don't want to call American banks more often than I usually have do, which for the past few years has been never. And I hated the buyer's remorse that came with buying expensive stuff.

I've always prided myself on avoiding unnecessary stress traps, and this project was becoming one. 

The moment where this really hit me is when I did our monthly net worth calculation, and I saw that it had dropped in a month where our stock performance beat the market. Additionally, I knew that it would continue to drop as we fulfilled the minimum spend over the next two months. Meanwhile, there were great deals in the stock market if only I could get some cash in to buy them. But no cash was coming. 

We got a couple awards from less ambitious cards, and maybe I'll do some of those in the future. But for the bigger cards, we just don't spend the kind of money that justifies trying to churn them. And to spend that money means forgoing buying real assets now that could be worth much more than the credit card points are next year. 

Anyway, that's my thinking. I'll write more about rewards and stuff, but for now, they're nice but not worth sacrificing real saving for. 

Some US Expat Challenges

Before I moved out of the US, I didn't give much thought to the challenges of saving money and trying to build wealth. I was just happy to have a job, and I was happy that my wife accepted this new adventure.

But once here, it became increasingly clear that we Americans have challenges while living abroad that are unique to us. Here are some.

Filing Two Tax Returns

This is the big one. We Amis have to file both in our resident country as well as the US, and under certain circumstances we can owe taxes to both countries. There's no exit interview when you move abroad, so you just have to learn this on your own by reading the IRS website or by asking other expats. If you miss one or several returns, you're going to have a bunch of work to sort through to catch up, not to mention potential penalties.

As for the actual filing, you can use programs like TurboTax to file in the States, but TurboTax doesn't know everything. As soon as you move away from simply being an employee for a single employer earning under whatever the cutoff for the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion is, you enter a much more complicated tax situation. For example, being self-employed while resident abroad requires some familiarity with the treaties negotiated between the US and your resident country, if such a treaty exists.

U.S. Banks Probably Don't Want to Deal with You

You face an uncertain result if you tell your American bank back home that you've moved abroad. Many simply maintain an American address with a family member rather than take the risk of their bank closing their accounts. It's the same story with credit cards and investing accounts.

Foreign Banks May not Want to Deal with You

Because of the long arm of the U.S. government, foreign banks are required to disclose information about American account holders to the U.S. government. When opening an account abroad, you may be sent IRS Form W-9 from the foreign bank.

Many banks don't want the hassle, and they may simply refuse to give you an account because of it. When FATCA was passed, there were lots of stories of Americans losing access to banks and banking products. It's gotten better since then, but we always have to assume that it could happen again.

Floating Currencies and Conversion

Living abroad subjects you to currency risk. If you have any kind of financial life in the US, you will need dollars at some point, and you will then be hit with the reality of ever-shifting global currencies.

When my wife and I first moved here, the euro was worth around 1.38 dollars. In the first year, we tried just getting our lives together and didn't aggressively pay down the debts accrued to move here. Within around a year, the euro plunged in value, and suddenly we faced debts accrued in dollars becoming larger relative to our European incomes simply due to currency fluctuation.

On top of that, converting currencies costs money. If you use a service like XE Trade or Transferwise, they will charge you some kind of fee or make money by converting at a slightly disadvantageous rate. But they're much better than using a bank or one of those conversion kiosks.

Complex Rules for Investing

Once you've actually saved your money, it's unclear where to put it. Save it abroad or in the US? What kind of vehicle? Savings accounts pay basically nothing (especially in the eurozone), but when you look at equities you are entering a new world of complexity. Individual stocks or funds?  Real estate and rental income? You have to consider the taxation rules for both countries when making your decision, and you have to consider potential future changes to the law. What strategy is the lowest risk within this complex matrix of possibilities? I've made my own choices here (buying individual stocks rather than funds), but each person will have to make their own choices.

For example, buying funds as an American in Germany is really risky. If you buy funds in Germany, the US will tax them punitively. If you buy funds in the US, Germany taxes them less punitively than they used to, but I find the rules excessively complex and somewhat punitive.

Do You Speak the Language?

We are at risk, though this applies to everyone, when we don't speak the home country's language as well as everyone else. The fine print matters, and if you find English legalese tricky, it's only going to be trickier in a language you didn't spend speaking during your school years.

That list should give you an idea of what we're dealing with. In many ways, of course, we're very privileged. We chose to be abroad. We chose this country. At least in Germany, most Germans seem happy to have us living here.

But there are a lot of traps you can step in while living abroad. I'm still learning.

Budgeting and Decisions

Yesterday, my wife and I came to a conclusion: we will not be doing a big U.S. visit in 2019. I got super stressed about this decision while we were making it, but the decision became much easier after doing three things:

• Adding up the costs of the last big trip taken a few months ago. 
• Looking at our budget for the next few months. 
• Talking about the decision with each other. 

The numbers don't lie. The last trip was really expensive. Although there are areas where we could cut costs and optimize, the next one would likely also be expensive in unavoidable ways, and combined with some other upcoming costs and upcoming financial uncertainties (cough cough taxes) it meant we'd be opening ourselves up to too much financial risk. Additionally, even if the uncertainties went our way, another trip would set us back on our longer term financial goals. 

So we had to bail on the idea. I sent out the messages to the relatives. Sorry. No big trip this year. I'd feel guilty, except that I know the numbers and how unrealistic it is to expect to do this every year. 

This is one reason why we should set financial goals, track our spending and budget future spending. At numerous points in my life, major decisions were made much clearer when the budget spit out its numbers. Rather than just a vague unease with a purchase or choice, the numbers show us why we are uneasy. They show us how the unwritten budget math in our minds is most likely lying and presenting an overly rosy view of things. Nearly any major decision can be reinforced or rejected by checking the budget. 

But we have to make one and follow it. It's hard, but it's worth it. 

Saving Abroad

I've been living outside of the U.S. for a number of years now, and something I discovered after moving away:

It's tricky to save money as an American living abroad.

Because we're subject to U.S. taxation and our home country's taxation (in my case Germany), we often have to jump through hoops that most other people never even think about. You can get mad about it. I did. Having to do all this extra work and face the extra complication and potential tax penalties and costs from complying felt like persecution. For those of us who are earning a middle class living, it feels punitive.

It's unfair. Full stop. But there's not much to do about it other than:

• Give up.
• Deal with it and figure it out. 

And it's possible that you might have some fun figuring it out! At the very least, there's a lot to learn in the process.

So I'm writing this to help organize my thoughts about dealing with money while living abroad and potentially help anyone who comes across this material.

Why Save?

A colleague of mine was told recently by his boss that he had two days to visit his dying mother. She's in North America. He's in Germany. If you haven't made that flight, it's basically a day per trip. If he wanted more time, he could personally hire a replacement, whom he would have to pay himself.

I have long believed in saving, but this was a strong reminder. It was like an extra push on a slowly turning wheel.

Keep saving!

We should save because it gives us options. We should save because we hate being forced into a corner and accepting something just because we're forced to financially. Don't you hate that? That feeling of being stuck? I do.

Once we've saved enough, we have all sorts of choices. Before then, we have few choices.

I asked myself what I would do if in that situation. Right now, I'd probably accept it even though I've saved a bit. But in a few years, I hope to be able to say without much second thought, "Then it's been a pleasure working with you," and quit.

My colleague is in constant financial distress. He's quite open about it. Mortgage. New gadgets. Car loan. Expensive hobbies. The usual story.  He has few choices in this most recent situation. He has few choices in all sorts of situations. I really don't know what he'll do. Sometimes I just want to shake him.

But I don't know the magic words that would get him to change without him just resenting me, so I just try to be a good example and not heap too much praise on his expensive stuff. And I'll write here, to remind you and to remind me to keep at it.

Give yourself options.

Save.