January 2019 Net Worth Update

Since December 26, our net worth rose 17.5% to $43,488. In EUR it rose 17.3% to €38,114. Here's what lead to that result.

In December, I received an elevated payment from my employer due to some extra work I did. This essentially doubled my salary for the month. This money went various places:

• I paid off a medical bill that I'd been paying monthly. I'm hoping to reap a tax deduction from it.
• I bought some stocks.
• We bought a new iPhone when my wife's five and a half year old phone died after a tragic meeting with some water.
• We bought some furniture.
• We bought a coffee maker.

Now, you'll notice not all of this is savings. Sometimes it feels right to spend money. I'm not Early Retirement Extreme. But there's some logic here.

Telephone use is broadly tax deductible in Germany. I'll be able to deduct the cost of this phone over the next three years. Meanwhile, I'm hoping to keep it in our household for at least six or seven. This is one of those areas where we're willing to occasionally spend some money, so we did. The only thing I regret is that I made the purchase using an American credit card when the exchange rate made the euro unusually strong against the dollar, and it's unlikely to reach that rate again before I have to pay the card off.

As for the furniture, this particular upgrade was something we'd contemplated for several years. It wasn't excessively extravagant, but it was unusually expensive for us. I think we're done though with any other major home upgrades for a while, so I don't foresee any other such purchases in our immediate future.

The coffee maker will undoubtedly save us electricity (already shown in my electricity tracking spreadsheet), and it wasn't all that expensive. We'd been making coffee using a pour over method that required water heated on the stovetop. Once poured, the coffee would cool down quickly. The new maker uses less power to heat the water to begin with and then delivers the coffee into a thermally insulated carafe. The coffee is still warm in the late afternoon, meaning less coffee needs to be made in a day, thus saving electricity and grounds.

Note: it's funny what cultures are willing to spend money on. Coffee making in Germany, and likely in Europe as a whole, is an activity where people will spend hundreds of euros on a coffee maker. Some friends of mine have a coffee maker that's just under €1000. Ours was around €55. But the idea of convenient instant coffee is very pervasive here, and if you're not into instant coffee, then that often means a push button machine that takes coffee pods or grinds the beans on demand and coughs up a single cup of coffee.

Stocks did well this month, which boosted our numbers much more than our savings alone did. I don't know what to think of the stock market right now, so it's entirely possible that when I write this update for February, we'll have suffered another major drawdown. The last year has taught me to not get used to up days too much, because they reverse abruptly.

Forecast for the next few months: since I bought everything on credit cards, I'll be paying those off from our cash flows in February and March. That will impact those months' savings rates, but the cards will be fully paid off on time, and since this is a new awards credit card, we should see the bonus hit in February.

There are also some bureaucratic costs that we'll unfortunately have to pay because our tax statement from the government is taking so long to get back to us. It's easy to wander into those when you're a foreigner living abroad and don't entirely understand the system.

December, 2018 Net Worth Update and Year End Review

UPDATE: I made a mistake when I initially posted this. In my spreadsheet, I double counted one of our credit card liabilities. We were still down for the month, but not quite as much as I originally wrote here. The updated numbers are $37,014.97 and €32,497.78 respectively. I'll leave the post as-is though since from a high level it remains correct.

Our net worth dropped in December to $36,153.59 or €31,741.52. That's a one month change of about -4.75%.

Since the majority of whatever wealth we have is in the form of stocks, we were hit hard by the sell-off in equities. Anyone paying attention to the markets this past month would have seen the kind of fast paced elevator down that market pundits have been scaring us about for years. Our savings rate didn't spare us from the damage.

We're still well up from a year ago though, and that's the perspective I want to keep in mind. Equities are for long-terms positions. I'm not a trader, and month to month moves whether up or down can only cause heartbreak if you get too emotionally invested in them.

This month had a few novel transactions worth mentioning. I got my Christmas bonus, which I always appreciate. At the same time, we had to pay our estimated taxes to the German government for the fourth quarter, so it was basically a wash. We also received a bit of Christmas money from relatives and a larger sum from a relative specifically earmarked to support a hobby of my wife's.

Year-End Review

So how'd we do this year? Our net worth is up around 33% in dollars from one year ago. That's entirely savings-rate based since our equity positions have been all over the place. As that net worth number grows, any year over year growth is going to come increasingly from investment performance.

Investment Performance

And my investment performance this year was bad at a YTD drop of 13% (I'm only considering my taxable brokerage account). Some of it was just the way the markets moved. For people following the US markets, it was a volatile year with big drops in February and then the last months of the year, but if you were invested in just about anything outside of the US, ho ho ho, you had a rough year.

How could I have known that at the exact moment I'd begin investing in German companies, it was at the peak of the German market? I began buying in October 2017, and this chart is the daily chart of the DAX from the past year:

It's actually uncanny how some of my German purchases happened at the exact tops of their cycles. The companies seemed cheap when I bought them, and they seem cheaper now, but that doesn't mean anything in the near term. The German companies were a drag on my performance over the whole year, even when I was doing well in other parts of the portfolio.

Some of the bad performance was from me trying things and discovering I don't have the temperament for them. I tried shorting some stocks, and I tried day-trading a few times. They're not my thing, and I'll avoid those activities in the future. Doing either triggers too much adrenaline and fear in me. Regardless of investment performance, I just don't want to live like that.

I also changed investment strategies in the middle of the year. I did a lot of backtesting and research to come up with a reasonable strategy, and I implemented it. I'm trying to control risk as best I can with smart position sizing and clear sell rules, but I do recognize that this strategy can be extremely volatile. As we get older, I have some ideas for how to reduce risk further within this current strategy, but for now, I'm being aggressive within my rules.

Recognizing my previous mistakes, I wrote a long document explaining the strategy and the rules. I've already referred to this document at times when I doubted my current approach, which makes this one of the best decisions I've made all year money-wise.

Savings

For our savings, we were somewhere around 25%. It's not exceptional, but it's not horrible either. I'd like to get this number up in 2019, but there are some genuinely life-improving expenses that may need to take priority if they become a possibility.

In 2018, the big overarching expenses were our rent as well as a trip we took to the US. Moving doesn't feel worth it. Rents are going up in Germany, and by staying put, we get to keep our rent stable while prices rise around us. I've looked at smaller apartments in our neighborhood, and their prices are approaching ours despite their smaller size. We could move further away, but our life satisfaction would plunge. Plus, my wife doesn't want to move, and neither do I.

After deliberation, I am going to the US this summer. I bought tickets using credit card points, and my wife and I will take our trips separately. I'm not thrilled about that entirely, to be honest, but the cost savings are enormous to having more focused trips back rather than larger multi-family tours. She can also work while I'm in the US and vice versa, so there's less opportunity cost.

We saved a bit on our tax preparation costs too. There are some tax people recommended to expats like us who speak English, but ouch they can charge a lot. They're very good, so don't get me wrong, but at some point you have to ask if what you're getting is worth the unusually high price. In our case, we were getting our taxes back in two weeks (fast) and we could communicate in English. But we speak German, so why not find someone less expensive who's good enough?

We could also do our own taxes, but for now I'm more comfortable with a professional in Germany on our side, and I'll keep doing my own US tax return.

So there's a wrap-up of the year for this abroad saver. I've learned a lot this year, and here's hoping for a more effective and smarter 2019. Cheers and have a happy new year.

CC Award Update

We got the award.

In an earlier post, I expressed some reservations about these big awards and the minimum spend required to achieve them. I still feel that, and my wife still feels that. We did drastically reduce our planned expenses. We don't like feeling incentivized to make big purchases.

But I still wanted the award for reasons I'll explain later, so I found a method of manufactured spending to make it work. There aren't many available to us Americans abroad, but there are some, and I took advantage.

The manufactured spend did cost something as a percentage of the spend, so it wasn't free. Basically, it's a cost for the accumulation of these points. I think it's better than buying a bunch of expensive stuff totaling $4000.

Why do it at all though? The basic calculation in my head was something like this: we are going to travel to the United States again at some point in the next two years, so therefore it's worth spending a little, to save much more later. The return is pretty good in this case (around $70 spent to save between $600-$1000 later). Even if I later eat the annual fee, the return is decent.

The reality is that we're going to visit family in the US at some point. It's important to both of us, and despite any savings goals we have, it's not worth sacrificing relationships or missing seeing child relatives grow up. Next summer we'll suffice with FaceTime, but the next year we'll almost certainly be heading back.

Or we'll help relatives who aren't as financially well off come visit us. It is much cheaper for us to pay to fly someone here, than for both of us to fly to the US and find accommodation and transportation.

Will we do this again? Maybe. I'm looking at other card award possibilities, but the trouble with manufactured spending is that it's kind of skirting the rules. I prefer to draw as little attention to myself as possible regarding my American financial accounts, and manufactured spending can open me up to closer inspection. I might do this with another similar card and then focus on things like hotel cards that provide free nights automatically. Since hotel costs were a high proportion of our last visit, cutting down on that would be worthwhile.

Or maybe I won't. I could just continue to add points to this card that I have and otherwise use normal German payment methods to get by. Germany doesn't have the same glut of strategies that the US has, but it has a few, and those might be enough to both satisfy the points accumulating itch and to keep things simple.

Churning Isn't Worth it for Us

After talking with my wife, we're going to back off on the card churning/travel-hacking thing. When we spoke, she was totally in alignment with me and expressed similar concerns that I mention below.

Sometimes you have to just admit that something isn't worth it. We're trying to build a deep savings habit. Habits take time and effort, and credit card rewards disrupt the savings habit.

Encouraged Spending

I found myself looking for things to spend money on. If I'd ever had a thought floating in my mind soup about something I'd like to buy, I began telling myself that I'd planned buying it all along. Now was indeed the time to do it since we had the new card. That way I could get to the end of the process and say, "We only spent money we meant to," even though it probably wasn't true.

I want to think about ways of saving money rather than spending money, and I don't want to think that spending comes with big rewards. 

Expensive Thinking

I found myself angling for more expensive solutions than I'd otherwise accept in order to meet the minimum spend. Every purchase was anchored to the number $4000. I reserved a hotel for a lot more money than I would if I'd purchased it with my normal credit card. I looked at brand new high-end products when used or otherwise less expensive items would meet our needs.

Luxury Dependence

These high end credit cards are trying to get us used to the idea of luxury, and luxury is a weakness. Airport lounges, high-end hotels, first-class airplane tickets, speedy security checks, elite status, and metal cards are all nice, but they clearly want the card user to become accustomed and dependent on these niceties.

I don't want to feel like I'm entitled to that stuff. One day these cards might not be so generous with their perks, but the luxury dependance would likely remain. And then you're trapped. 

Points Aren't True Assets

Points are kind of like assets, but not really. The issuing company can change the rules whenever they want. The airlines can jack up their fuel surcharges. The points accumulate no income, and their value doesn't appreciate with time. As far as I can tell, there are no laws protecting you as a points holder.

If we spend a bunch of money now to get the bonus within the next month, we'd be spending today's money in order to save money potentially about a year from now. That's putting lot of faith that the points will be worth something then, and it's a lot of faith that the money that I could have saved today couldn't have been used in a better way. 

Stress

It was causing me stress, and that sucks. I don't want to resent my wife if she didn't put some spend on the card. I don't want my afternoon ruined if the card machine at the grocery store doesn't work. I don't want to call American banks more often than I usually have do, which for the past few years has been never. And I hated the buyer's remorse that came with buying expensive stuff.

I've always prided myself on avoiding unnecessary stress traps, and this project was becoming one. 

The moment where this really hit me is when I did our monthly net worth calculation, and I saw that it had dropped in a month where our stock performance beat the market. Additionally, I knew that it would continue to drop as we fulfilled the minimum spend over the next two months. Meanwhile, there were great deals in the stock market if only I could get some cash in to buy them. But no cash was coming. 

We got a couple awards from less ambitious cards, and maybe I'll do some of those in the future. But for the bigger cards, we just don't spend the kind of money that justifies trying to churn them. And to spend that money means forgoing buying real assets now that could be worth much more than the credit card points are next year. 

Anyway, that's my thinking. I'll write more about rewards and stuff, but for now, they're nice but not worth sacrificing real saving for. 

Credit Card Award Beginner

Over the summer, while making several US trips, I managed to score a few credit card awards. These were the easy to achieve kind: spend $500 in three months and get back around $150.

In August, I might have bit off more than I can chew. I went for one of the big mid-tier cards that offer you a bunch of points for $4000 spend in three months. It has no foreign transaction fees, so I can stick a lot of our local transactions on the card. That's no problem.

But despite some lofty goals, I'm finding it hard to spend the money. First, there's a lag between being approved for the card and its arrival abroad. In that time, some spending has to happen just to eat, so that spend doesn't count towards the reward, though the clock had started ticking on the 90 days.

Second, there are few good options for manufactured spend in Germany. Those Visa cards you can load up in the U.S. don't really exist in the same way here. There's no Plastiq, so rent and a bunch of other bills happen directly from our normal bank account.

One of the rules I set for this project was to not spend extraneous money that we otherwise would not have spent. One the one hand, we haven't gone out and bought a bunch of crazy extra stuff. No new computers or cell phones.

The stuff we planned to buy that would have helped us cross the spending threshold keep getting cheaper the longer we plan. For example, we planned to put a bunch of next summer's U.S. trip on the card, but we determined that a trip would be too expensive, so we chucked that. We planned on buying a nice couch, but even with the reward, we find couches too expensive and keep finding acceptable couches at lower price points. We are taking a brief vacation on one of my long weekends, but with low-cost airlines in Europe, it just wasn't that expensive. And we planned on doing some nice-ish things for the apartment, but short of a full kitchen overhaul, we can't stand spending the money.

And some of the more outlandish ideas, such as buying a new iPhone, get snuffed out mentally before they have much gestation time.

On the other hand, we wouldn't have done even this amount of spending without the card, so it's encouraged us to open our wallets more than we otherwise would have. The couch we have is an eyesore, but it's functional. The apartment improvements could have waited. The small trip could have been even smaller.

I've been forced to update how we budget, which adds complication. It's much harder now to get a big picture idea of how well we're managing money since a budgeted item happens this month but the actual paying for it happens next month or later. I've developed some new systems, but what used to be simple is now more complex, and I believe complexity makes overspending more likely.

I keep coming back to one thing: the reward is worth between $600-$1000 depending on how well it's used. But if you don't spend any money at all, then such a reward pales in comparison to the value saved.

I've been going back to some of my favorite sources for financial inspiration, and some of my spending ideas feel more suspect. For example, I thought of front-loading our mobile prepaid amounts for the next year. But now I'm wondering if I even really need a mobile phone. I have some internet services that I use. I could prepay them... or I could cancel them and just keep the money.

I'm not certain if I'll do any of those things, but I'm considering it. So there's a kind of mental battle between my desire to try churning out of curiosity, my default frugal side, my radical frugal side that wants to move into a studio apartment and sell our furniture and use the library's internet, a certain amount of sunk cost fallacy lurking in the background, and my desire for the stuff we're going to buy.

I know an American family here that churns U.S. credit cards successfully, but I have no idea what their budget looks like, and I believe that they have willing helpers in the US who spend on the card on their behalf. I'm not so trusting as to give any of my family my credit card, so that avenue is not open to us.

At the very least, I doubt I'll do this again any time soon no matter how it turns out. It really doesn't appear practical for us.