2024 Third Quarter Update: Net Worth, Accounting, Your Money or Your Life, Anxiety

Numbers

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, my wife and I crossed the $200,000 net worth threshold for the first time. We ended September with $200,732/€180,352, corresponding to a quarter-over-quarter rise of 10.3%/6.63%.

I figured that we'd reach this point sometime this year, but the speed at which it happened has nevertheless surprised me. This has not been an awe-inspiring year of savings, and I feel like our money has just been going on a ride of its own making.

Accounting

One accounting change: I've included our rental deposit in our assets under the heading "Other Long Term Assets". Technically, it should function on our balance sheet as a long-term asset and for my landlord as a liability, even though the money is currently in his possession. This is similar to how customer deposits are liabilities on a bank balance sheet. It also remains an asset despite the risk that the deposit will be lowered upon moving out.

Taxes

I struggle with estimating and including tax liabilities in our accounting. Therefore, I simply haven't done it, although it's a major factor. For example, we had to pay a large estimated tax payment in September, most of which will almost certainly be returned to us. How do I include that? Most of it will be returned, but not all of it. And how best to include any accrued tax liability?

So should I throw up my hands and give up, as I've done, or make a lazy estimate?

Your Money or Your Life

Last month, I purchased Vicki Robin's Your Money or Your Life on Audible and listened while walking around the park. I won't write a big review at the moment, but there's a lot that's very good in the book.

What she does especially well is connect money with time. She frames the trade-offs in our choices very starkly, and I've been forced to reassess some of my lifestyle. That's especially true because I had some health scares during the last few months. Although those scares didn't add up to anything significant, I had to confront my fears about life and death.

Anxiety

I walk around with a lot of anxiety related to my economic success. This is true despite the ongoing success of my investment choices. Anxiety is, by its very nature, not happiness. What choices am I making, or better yet, what do I believe that provokes so much latent stress?

There are two avenues to disentangle:

• The fears about my "hopes and dreams" career field, which feels fundamentally precarious.
• My need to be perceived as successful, whether that translates to actual financial betterment or not.

I don't have answers at this point, only hunches. Under the first category, there's some reality underlying this anxiety. I work in a field full of economic uncertainty. My wife and I visited a friend over the weekend who's currently unemployed and on unemployment despite being respected in the field. A local employer is currently undergoing a change in management that will likely lead to a lot of employee turnover. Those employees may not be able to find new employment in this field.

Under the second, I do want to be seen as successful. It's the truth, but I don't know what the balance between being "seen as" and just "being" is, if that makes sense. In many senses, within my field, just going by the numbers, I am extremely successful. However, because I exist within this "hopes and dreams" world, my position does not confer great status on me.

And therein lies the tension. By the numbers, I should chill out and enjoy my life. By my nebulous sense of social status within my field, and my fear that my entire field might vanish, I can't.

Forecast

I suspect the next few months will be very good earning months for us both. Neither of us is going on any vacations, and there shouldn't be great expenses befalling us. We will have to pay some taxes, but we may also have some taxes returned to us.

Whether I can resolve these tensions in the next few months is uncertain. But I'll let you know my progress in the annual update. Until then, stay sane and healthy.

2024 First Half Update

Our net worth was $180,483/€167.735, representing a quarter-over-quarter change of -.71% and -.34% respectively. Quarter-over-quarter this was flat performance, but our first-half wealth growth in 2024 remains decent.

The Past Three Months

We've incurred a lot of spending in the past few months, which has slowed our savings rate. For one, our summer travel plans got expensive all of a sudden. We delayed buying our tickets to the US, which caused the price to creep up.

However, there's some spending that's just the result of carelessness. Some money leaks are happening, and I need to figure out where those are. For example, we're regularly exceeding our grocery budget. Some expenses are deliberate choices that nevertheless feel careless. I bought a new iPhone, which is expensive. My wife has doubled some of her lessons. I've been making some purchases in one of my side businesses. Each choice feels small in the moment, but they add together into reduced savings over time.

The stock market was also turbulent the past three months. I contemplated our wealth reaching the $200,000 in my last post, but as I hit "publish", the market gods reminded me not to get too complacent. That said, I wasn't worried about it as it was happening. Since I've adopted the ETF strategy, my mental health around investing remains healthy.

Third Quarter Forecast

I'm glad I waited before writing this post. In the latter half of June and in early July, we were expecting to have to pay enormous sums to the Finanzamt (the German tax authority) in estimated taxes. Because the pandemic depressed our incomes, our estimated taxes also correspondingly fell. When our incomes recovered, the Finanzamt wanted to adjust our estimated tax payments to new unheard-of levels. Thanks to the quick work of our tax preparer, we got the necessary paperwork organized and dispatched, which saved us from having to raid our savings just to cover estimated taxes.

It was a stressful moment, and it reminded me that I need to be more actively saving self-employment money as estimated tax funds. We shouldn't have allowed ourselves to get into that position.

That said, we're still digesting our elevated travel costs from the past few months. This will hamper saving. We also paid an outstanding tax bill from 2022, and that alone may wipe out any savings we accrue. It's hard to say without knowing the future.

Until next time, stay healthy.

Third Quarter 2023 Update: Boredom Hack, Net Worth, Side Hustles, Taxes

I've had a breakthrough.

Here's a question: how much poor stock market performance is due to boredom? As in, if we're bored with our lives, are we turning to the markets purely for entertainment? For example, the speculative extremes during the pandemic may have been caused by people having nothing better to do.

In my own case, it's a likely factor in much of my own bad behavior. I have periods, especially since moving abroad, where I feel directionless. Due to the lack of upward mobility of my day job, it's hard to get excited about it when I'm at home. My wife can't absorb all of my neediness (nor should she be expected to, of course), but it has to go somewhere. My stock market life became an obsession and a fantasy, where maybe, just maybe, I could find the formula to let me bail on my day job and its constrictions.

This singular focus on it did some good things for me. Learning about companies is learning about the world. However, the anxiety of watching the market plagued my mental health. As a result, I've made a number of decisions that were poor and have led to head-scratching consequences. "What was I thinking?" has been a recurrent thought.

Two things have lightened my mental load. The first is having bitten the bullet and moved to mutual funds. Taking some of the pressure off of my individual stock positions came with an unfortunate tax bill (more on that later), but the concomitant reduction in anxiety has been worth it. The second is the reinvigorization of my side hustles. Over the summer, one of them got new life breathed into it. Having somewhere else to project my ambitions has been great for me.

Being too busy to worry about markets is an incredible hack. I go days now without looking at my portfolio's performance. It exists and does its thing. Honestly, as clever as I think the Wiseguy Portfolio is, I'm considering simplifying it even further because I want to spend even less time worrying about it and fiddling with it. Because there are more dividends from different funds coming in at any given time, and because I need to occasionally rebalance all these different funds, it gives me more chances to look at it and worry. It also eats up time that I could be using productively elsewhere.

I haven't made a final decision about that.

Net Worth

Our net worth increased quarter over quarter to $150,992 and €142,714, which is a quarter-over-quarter gain of 1.27% and 4.81% respectively.

The third quarter generally sees a lot of income come in (haha), which offset some of the market shenanigans. I got my summer bonus, and my wife also got some good-sized payments from her customers. Since our vacations were modest this year, we didn't have large summer outflows, and she could work more often uninteruptted.

The past two months have seen high market volatility, and my portfolio was hit. Bonds have been especially strongly hit, but some of my individual stocks have been beaten up too. Green Brick Partners, for example, has had a rough go of it due to some bad news in the mortgage market as well as Greenlight Capital selling a sizable chunk of their position to rebalance.

Side Hustle

One of my side hustles generated some sales, but I also had expenses that more than offset those. I'm trying to sell some things to keep the hit in line, but so far, I've been unsuccessful. I've also gotten a refund on one expensive item that will show up the next time I write one of these.

I want this side hustle to become a profit generator for me, and that's where most of my ambitious energy has been directed. The upside is that making wild swings in the side hustle might lead to imperfect results and some wasted money, but it won't lead to disaster like a bunch of stock trades can. And if I can make even a few multiples of profit on my invested money, I can have a return generator greater than most of my stock positions.

Taxes

In 2022, when I moved a lot of money to mutual funds, I did this by selling a bunch of individual stocks. This has led to a large tax bill in Germany, whis has taken me by surprise because I had a loss in the US.

The culprit was, besides myself, the weakened euro. Some of my trades were purchased when the euro was at a high point and sold when the euro was at a low point. This made gains more valuable and losses less potent. Because nearly all of my positions are dollar-denominated, I couldn't see my mistake, and as such, I had enough gains to have to accrue my first capital gains tax in Germany. Oops.

That hit hasn't landed in our net worth statement yet, but it's coming.

It's made me realize that it's very hard for me to determine the euro cost basis of my positions. I knew that I'd sold during a weak time for the euro, but I didn't realize that the difference would be that extreme. However, to determine my liability, I'd have to track every single lot purchase in a spreadsheet. Interactive Brokers does not provide good cross-currency tax planning tools, and if I don't do it myself, I'll just walk into this trap over and over again.

Final Thoughts

Even with the missteps, this was a good quarter. I feel relaxed about money for the first time in years, and I feel like I have somewhere to direct my creative energies outside of my day job.

We'll have some big costs coming up. My wife wants to see her family over Thanksgiving. The aforementioned tax bill will hit. I still have some investments I need to make in this side hustle. Hopefully, these costs are offset somewhat by some additional side hustle sales, some sales of personal items, and increased income from our day jobs. As for the stock market, it's anyone's guess.

Until next time, stay healthy.

2023 First Quarter Update

When I decided to move to a quarterly posting schedule for these updates, I did so out of fear that I was getting repetitive. How many times could I write, "Net worth was up/down a bit... Mostly it was thanks to stocks one way or the other"?

Pretty dull.

The first quarter of 2023 was not dull, however. The consequences of one conversation rippled outward and touched all areas of our financial lives.

The Texts That Launched 1,000 Ships

One Sunday in January, I got a series of texts from my sibling (hereafter Sib) regarding my poor parent (hereafter PoorParent). It was a horrible conversation full of disagreements.

I've thought about writing more details about this, but it's much too personal. Long story short, the worries I laid out in My Baby Boomer Parent is Poor are threatening us much earlier than I had anticipated. The reality for me and Sib is that supporting PoorParent right now is only possible by severely limiting our lives in other ways. It would also make it more difficult to help PoorParent in the future when more dire situations arise.

Sib agrees with me now, but getting there was an unpleasant path.

Enter Dave Ramsey

I went to YouTube and looked up advice for people in my situation. There's hardly any, which is shocking, and the only person out there really talking about the duties or lack thereof of children when it comes to supporting their elderly poor parents is Dave Ramsey. So Dave Ramsey re-entered my life for the first time since I read his book Total Money Makeover back in 2009.

Although I'm not a pure Ramsey-ite, Dave's thinking has deeply influenced mine. Many of my money concepts can be directly linked to The Total Money Makeover. I've been budgeting for that long because, well, he told me too. I've become a true budget believer, and so has my wife. Even our "Blow" category is directly taken from his budget outline. Suffice it to say, I was primed to listen to what he had to say.

One thing that became clear was that I'm allowed to say no. To use his metaphor, I'm allowed to put on my own financial oxygen mask before I help other people, and that includes my parents.

Additionally, I now suspect that Sib and I had been enabling PoorParent. We can only take so much responsibility because we were much younger, but I can look to specific choices that PoorParent made that were emotionally and/or logistically supported by us. Had we gone along with fewer of these choices, we might currently have a better situation on our hands.

Tchüss, Debt

I was taking too much risk. That giant loan I took out in August 2021 was dumb. Sure, the interest rate was rock bottom, but so what? The monthly payments were annoying, and they limited our actual choices.

In February, I mostly paid it off after selling off a bunch of my individual stock positions. There's a pre-payment penalty for nearly all German debt, so I left slightly more than three scheduled payments to avoid that trap. You'll see a big change in the assets and liabilities of our net worth chart.

My thinking about the loan was wrong from the beginning.

FOMO

Reflecting, I got the loan after visiting America and feeling FOMO. I had this sense that I should do something, which is not a great emotional place from which to make decisions.

Most of the time, as I'm learning, the adult choice is just to keep on doing smart stable things. As Dave Ramsey describes it, his baby steps 4 and onward are pretty boring. Saving for retirement takes time, dedication, and patience. It's exciting in terms of the power of compound interest, but otherwise, it's a boring process. I've listened now to many calls into his show where someone has had a windfall and wants to do something to maximize their return on that money. For most people, the correct answer is to simply pay off any debt and their mortgage, and invest in mutual funds. This advice is often unsatisfactory for the caller, however.

Since I've become much less tolerant of holding individual stocks, the cognitive dissonance of being in debt while holding individual stocks became unbearable for me. I have no idea if I'm any good at picking stocks. For someone like me, borrowing money while owning individual stocks is especially dumb. I've learned in the past that my thinking goes crazy when I leveraged a position, and sure enough, I felt perpetually crazy.

The risk I had taken was:

• Job loss risk and risk that I couldn't make the future payments
• Increased risk of emotional volatility leading to poor decisions
• Currency rate risk (borrowed in euros to buy in dollars)
• Opportunity cost since that income was tied to monthly payments

It also bothered me philosophically that I was in debt. I liked being out of debt, and it was a point of pride that I'd paid off my student loans early. Along the way, yes, I had some installment plans, but there was never any interest attached. But now, I was in debt and paying interest. Yuck.

But even those installment plans need to be a thing of the past. Making choices for future me to pay for stuff is a mean thing to do to myself. It also assumes that the future looks like the present, which is not guaranteed.

Re-enter the IRA

During my Dave Ramsey rabbit hole, I listened to the Chris Hogan book "Everyday Millionaires" and read Ramsey's "Baby Steps Millionaires". One of the statistics was that most millionaires did it by steadily adding to their 401k plans. I hadn't added to my IRA since 2012, which was my loss because the money I'd put in between 2008 and 2012 - a total of $1,750 - had quintupled.

Therefore, after a decade of avoidance and fear, I've decided to continue adding to my IRA. For expats, this is tricky but doable. I'll have to use the Foreign Tax Credit rather than the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion to prevent tax payments to the US. This is more work, but having tax-sheltered investments is too important.

Wiseguy 2.0

I'll continue adding to the Wiseguy Portfolio allocation across my various accounts. Using Portfolio Performance, this is relatively easy to do with the Asset Allocation feature.

I've made an adjustment to weightings, however, which I'm thinking of as Wiseguy 2.0. There's now a 10% weighting to REITs, now that there's a tax-sheltered place for me to put them. REITs in a taxable account are dumb dumb dumb, which is why I left them out before. Within the REIT basket is a 25% allocation to ex-US REITs, so 2.5% of the total portfolio. That may seem paltry, but the fees on the Vanguard ex-US REIT fund are high. I'd like exposure, but until the fees come down more, I can't justify a heavy weighting.

To make space for the 10%, I've reduced the bond allocation to 10% from 20%. I'm taking more risk, which means that any future drawdowns will likely be more stomach-churning. However, I'm hoping this will also lead to long-term greater returns. I can't access my IRA money for another 30 years after all.

So Wiseguy 2.0 is this:

• 25% US Small Cap Value
• 25% US Large Cap Growth
• 25% ex-US Small Cap Value
• 10% Long-term bonds (both Treasury and Corporates)
• 10% REITs (75% US/25% ex-US)
• 5% Gold

Net Worth

Image: A stacked bar chart of our net worth over time. Click to enlarge.

As of March 31, 2023, our net worth rose since December by 8.22% in USD and 6.83% in EUR to $135,357 and €124,753 respectively. Liquid net worth is $99,747.

This new chart is meant to simplify viewing. The previous style was pretty difficult to read, and this new iteration makes it clearer. It also, perhaps a bit pretentiously, uses typical business accounting terms for some items, such as "Cash and cash equivalents". "Accounts receivable" at this point means strictly dividends for which the ex-dividend date has passed.

Stock Performance

Stocks have more or less been in an uptrend. Of the Wiseguy components, US large-cap growth, gold, and bonds have all done very well. Small-cap value has performed poorly, likely as a result of banking industry volatility. The purchase of the REIT funds accidentally corresponded with a bounce for that asset class, which wasn't intentional but worked out in my favor.

Spending

In addition to the big macro money moves, we've also re-committed to following our budget. We reined in our grocery spending, cut down on subscriptions, and otherwise made choices that resulted in lower spending overall. I'm also turning reward points (classified as "intangible assets") into groceries or money as much as I can.

We did buy a plane ticket for my wife to visit her family in the States. That was necessary. However, we've declined to go on a big vacation this summer in the US. This was a secondary set of conversations with my family that were difficult, but I'm at peace about it.

Simultaneously, the elimination of the debt also eliminated the lifetime interest cost, which I had added to the liabilities side of our balance sheet. That was about €2,000.

Second Quarter Forecast

Considering how much activity there was in the past three months, it's hard to consider what might happen in the next three. Here's some of what we know:

Our heating bill has gone up a lot. We'll have to eat a big upfront cost in April, and our monthly warm rent will rise. That's a bummer, but it's the situation Germany finds itself in.

My wife and I will likely plan some modest trip for the two of us. We'll probably pay for it before the end of June.

I'm going to aggressively add to my IRA until I hit the max for 2023. $6500 is a doable number, and I hope to never miss hitting the max ever again. I doubt I'll get there by the end of June though.

The last debt payment will be gone at the end of May. Good riddance.

Until next time, stay healthy and avoid FOMO.

July and August 2022 Updates: Travel, Inflation, Rent

In most of July and early August, I was taking advantage of my summer vacation to travel through Europe and the United States. Meanwhile, Europe's bad news kept piling up.

With power prices rising and the rivers drying up and a war and the currency falling in value, it's a worrying moment here. To put it mildly. I've been captivated by the potential for major disruptions to our lives and for the lives of millions of Europeans whose livelihoods rely on industries, which themselves rely on inputs such as natural gas and electricity, both of which have exploded in price.

What does Germany do if its major industries shut down? I don't know.

That said, even while vacationing within Europe, it all felt far away. Shops were open and happy to sell over-priced chocolates or locally made clothing. The wine and cheese in France were still excellent. Paris is still beautiful. The museums remain treasures. People were generally pleasant and happy to see us. My family who visited France loved it and some said they wanted to move there.

To be fair, when I visited the US, all of its problems felt far away too. American food is great. Everyone is nice in a way that feels increasingly foreign and yet increasingly welcome. I think "Maybe I should move back!" after I've touristed in the US, but when I speak to my younger family members about their jobs, the prospect seems less appealing.

All of them are in the rat race. All of them are working their butts off. All of them don't get enough vacation time. I didn't ask about health care, but I know what that's like. All of them are likely earning more than I do, but the price for that is enormous uncertainty and very little freedom with their time. Whenever I spoke about my job, I couldn't help but feel like I was bragging, even though I'm somewhat unhappy with my career and am considering other prospects.

But as soon as the words leave my lips, "Six weeks summer vacation.... yes, it's paid," I know I have something valuable that my working-age American family doesn't have. It's a tricky social minefield, and it's an inevitable topic of conversation because I just have so much free time in the summer. Meanwhile, my American loved ones balance seeing me with their work schedules.

We'll see though. If Germany can't manage its current troubles, it's possible that the system that supports me and my colleagues falls apart. That's unlikely, but it can't be ruled out.

Net Worth: Inflation and Stocks

Our net worth increased 7.46% in July ($123,947) and fell 2.01% in August ($121,453) in USD. In euros, it rose 9.45% in July (€121,160) and rose .44% in August (€121,697). Liquid net worth at the end of August stood at $89,890 and €90,070.

Image: Chart of our USD net worth over time. Notice the value of euro debt decreasing quickly.

The falling euro is scary. On the one hand, my euro wealth continues to rise because of my overwhelming reliance on dollar assets for my savings. On the other, I have received a large pay cut relative to the US, which I felt acutely whenever I paid for a restaurant bill in the US. Inflation in the US plus a falling euro equals pain for euro jobbers like me.

The upsides are that if there's an emergency over here, my USD cash has become more valuable in euros. Likewise, the value of my European debt has decreased significantly in dollar terms.

Stock Market

The stock market since June has been volatile. The S&P 500 rose in price in July to touch the 200 day moving average and has since fallen. My assumption is that it's in a downtrend, and so my IRA remains in a money market account. Ironically, my lack of action since February in the IRA has been the best trade of my life. The interest I earn in it has gone up over time even as the overall market continues trending downwards.

So far, despite the new downward price action, I don't feel any urge to make major portfolio changes.

My Evolving Rent Thoughts

I have to admit: I've been triggered by the rent increase we got in June. Until then, I'd never had a landlord increase their rent on me. And for him to do it then, just as all our economic realities were getting more precarious, felt especially grating.

I admit that this is irrational. He's also an investor, and investors want rising cash flows from their investments. I get it. But I don't like being a landlord's cash flow¹, and so we've been looking at buying properties again. I still hate the upfront cost of buying something here, but man, I hate having my rent raised. So I'll keep looking.

For a few weeks there, I felt like I was in a rush to buy something. But that has subsided. I've calmed down. I'm still worried about a potential rent increase next year too, but I see that our requirements for a property are specific enough that I can't and shouldn't just buy any old thing.

Other Notes: Computer, Refund, €9 ticket

In July, we bought a new computer for my wife. Her's starting crashing, and since she relies on a stable computer for her work, we bought a new MacBook Air for her. We were going to pay for this from occupational cash flow, but amazingly we finally got the second federal stimulus payment in the form of our 2020 tax return refund. Plus interest! That more or less covered the cost, and it came at a perfect time.

That said, we're going to be financially tight for awhile here. She's making a major change in her business, and the short term effects are likely to be reduced cash flow in the short term with increased cash flow later since she'll be in greater control of her time and pricing. She's being bold, and I'm happy for her.

Finally, we will both miss Germany's €9 ticket, which allowed us both to travel throughout Germany for €18 total per month in June, July, and August. It's back to the old complicated expensive system here, and we'll mourn grievously.

That's all I have for this time around. Take care of yourselves and your families. Until next time.

---

1. Especially for this landlord. I like our apartment and its location, but his management of this building leaves a lot to be desired, and we're currently fighting with him about our Nebenkosten. ↩︎

Update: July 2021, Back in the USA

Our net worth increased in July to $107,189 and €90,838, which is a month over month rise of 4.81% and 6.05% respectively.

This is a surprising result for me, because I'm in the USA, and I'm spending money. The trip has been more expensive than I originally expected (though there was always an inner voice telling me to expect it), and the stock market sort of bailed me out. If you owned US stocks in July, you were likely rewarded. At least up until that last week.

Stocks Reporting Earnings

Some of my largest holdings reported earnings in July: Ally Financial, Apple, Alphabet, Charter, Amazon, Facebook, Paypal, and T-Mobile all reported earnings, and the news was generally good. These companies are continuing to grow, and their future prospects are strong.

That doesn't mean that the corresponding stocks were rewarded immediately for that growth. While Ally, Alphabet, and Charter rose following their announcements, Apple, Facebook, Paypal and, especially, Amazon fell in price. Those falls happened in the days after I recorded our net worth change, so they're not reflected in the above totals, but suffice it to say, they were meaningful. Amazon fell a little over 7% in one day, and since that's my largest taxable holding, it was a meaningful drop.

These drops and rises though are just noise though. They are meaningless for long-term success. And getting mad at the market for punishing strong companies' stocks is like shouting at the wind (which I've done at my more pathetic moments). We all see the comments on Twitter and Seeking Alpha that go something like, "Company x just announced a huge beat, and the stock is down 5%? How does that make any sense?"

Maybe it makes sense, and maybe it doesn't. Maybe the company is overvalued, or maybe large holders are taking profits. It's all a guessing game, and it's pointless to try and justify or deride every market move.

I write this, and I have to admit that only in the past year and a half have I been able to actually remain calm during these kinds of drops. My first stupid sale from a drop was Booking Holdings back in the fall of 2017. That kind of sudden reversal was terrifying for me, especially after the easy rise up the market had in 2017. From there to now, I've experienced a real maturation of my response to these movements.

The United States After a 2 Year Absence

I'm currently in the US after being absent from it for two years due to the pandemic. It's been eye opening. The country feels alive and dynamic in a way that I miss from Germany. Germany is solid, and it's treated me very well, but I've never regarded it as an exciting place. The US is exciting. It feels like stuff is happening, like deals are being done, like boundaries are being pushed, like money is bounding forth from all the dynamism.

I like this feeling. It's seductive.

At the same time, there's the dark side. I turn on the TV, and there are the drug ads. CBS Morning has a segment called "Bill of the Month", which highlighted a man with two separate insurance plans who still owed $150,000 after an accident that left him in an out-of-network hospital. I see that a pill that I take daily costs many multiples more than what I pay in Germany, even for a generic! Lots of peers my age are living with crippling student loans and few job prospects if they didn't choose the hot career of the moment.

And during my time here, I kept having to sequester myself from my family to continue working on the Streamlined Filing Procedure. I believe that once it's all done, I won't owe any money, and the IRS won't come after me. But I won't be entirely sure until the statute of limitations is up.

I've lost so much time and energy to this process in a period when I wanted to focus on my family. Since the IRS has to decide - somewhat arbitrarily - whether my actions were willful or not, I had to just hustle to get this done. I wanted to finish it before I left Germany, but I couldn't do it, and the whole thing kept underlining how absurd it is.

For example, I make some self-employment income on the side in Germany. In Germany, there's some threshold you have to cross before they start taxing you on that income, which means I've never been taxed on it even though I always declare it in my German tax return. In the US, that threshold is MUCH lower, and so during this process I essentially had to create a set of P&L books just for my US tax return. I also did the same for my wife's small business.

It's all crazy. Now I have to worry that the IRS is going to bother me about some write off for this tiny small business that I have in a foreign country where the foreign country itself doesn't even consider me worth taxing! These write-offs are to avoid social security, but they know I live in Germany, which has a Totalization Agreement with the US about Social Security, but to actually get out of paying SS in the US, I have to fulfill some additional paperwork that for some reason the German Rentenversicherung doesn't want to provide me (naturally, they just don't respond to my requests for it).

I just don't get why my home country is this way.

Suffice it to say, I have mixed feelings about America right now. It feels like a vibrant place full of opportunity, but it's also loaded with traps and harassment for its citizens.

Let's also not forget that the US is being hit by another wave of the coronavirus primarily because of vaccine hesitancy. To say I'm disappointed in many of my countrymen and women is an understatement. I have several family members who are ill with it, and I hope they pull through.

August Forecast

On the day that I left Germany, the third of the three stimulus payments arrived in our Postfach. However, I was out the door already, and so my wife has been sitting tight on that check. We also received our long-awaited German tax refund at the end of July. Both of those will contribute meaningfully to month over month changes in my August update.

My wife's work is also picking up. We'll see how long that lasts (since Germans are hardly free from this vaccine hesitancy madness), but for now some extra income is very welcome.

As for expenses, I expect to pay for our American and German tax preparers. I do not resent either of them personally since they've both been very good for us, but I do resent this system I've found myself in.

Until next time, stay healthy and look out for your loved ones.

June 2021 Update

On June 26, when I took the monthly measurement, our net worth had risen in the prior month by 1.74% in USD and 3.87% in EUR to $102,269 and €85,653 respectively. Year over year, that's a 50.4% and 41.33% rise in USD and EUR respectively.

We've essentially returned to where we were in May with slight changes to the overall relationships between various accounts. As I wrote in earlier updates, we haven't been able to actually save much in the past few months, so the gyrations of our stock portfolios have been entirely of their own volition.

Stock Shenanigans

Now, I enabled this volatility a bit by selling and buying some things, but there wasn't really much of a period where any of the proceeds of those sales sat in cash.

May provided one of those confounding periods that I wish I were better at predicting. After I sold some stocks, I purchased different shares. When the first stocks fell, I felt vindicated. When the newly purchased shares also fell, I felt like a fool. My instinct to sell had been right, but my rush to buy was not, and much of the frustration I felt in the past two months could have been reduced had I sat on my hands a bit longer and allowed volatility to help me out and make me feel like a genius trader.

That said, in the long run, it won't matter. I can barely remember the various agonies I've experienced since buying my first shares. Eventually this small irritation in May and June will fade like those others I've forgotten in the past. It's all the more reason to avoid making large blunders that make these periods unforgettable.

The one thing that might have been such a blunder was my sale of Cloudflare. This is not a stock tip. Following the sale, I experienced serious regret and a nagging sense that I had made a long-term blunder. I even dreamed about it. After analyzing the company to a greater extent than I did when I first bought the shares in 2019 on a whim, I've decided to average back into it. Make of that what you will. My other sales haven't distressed me, so this will be a good gauge of my instincts as the years play out.

Taxes

We had to move some money out of savings and into the hands of the German federal government by paying our estimated taxes. If we're overpaying, we probably won't see that money again until the end of 2021 with the lag times between receiving the necessary paperwork, the tax preparer's time, and the pace of the German Finanzamt.

In America, I found doing taxes to be kind of fun and easy. I studiously learned the rules as best I could and filed on time every year. When I moved abroad, I knew I needed to file a US return as well, which I've always done.

But taxes have become a drag and a source of dread. Almost none of that feeling has come from paying taxes, but instead it's the vast quantities of paperwork and organization we're required to maintain along with the conflicting rules of two countries that drive me to anxiety and occasional despair.

It appears I've missed something in all my US filings, and now we're going through the IRS' Streamlined Procedure because the risks posed by the outlandish penalties are too high to ignore. Namely, I misunderstood the FBAR (IRS Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts) and how some of my arrangements in Germany might, repeat, might have been reportable. No one can say with certainty whether they are or not, but because the potential penalties are so extreme, and because I'm already in the IRS system, I can't ignore them.

So now we're paying a firm to help us, and in the days before I fly to America to re-establish my relationships with my blood relatives, I'm reassembling three years of data to prove to the IRS country that we don't owe taxes and that we weren't trying to hide money from them. Along the way, I'm learning the other small ways in which U.S. expats are screwed by the US' tax system and it's hard not to feel like our country hates us. Charlie Munger exhorts people to never feel sorry for themselves ("I know self-pity is stupid"), and I try to keep that in mind to keep plunging forward in this task, but that sense of injustice and unfairness grates like sand in my shoes.

June Outlook

We will have to pay the aforementioned tax preparer in June, and I will likely have elevated spending while in the US. Otherwise, I'm hoping for not too many surprises. Because I received my summer bonus, I had some extra money to save, which I've done. Should we receive any of the various stimulus checks from the US or the mythical refund for our overpaid 2019 German taxes, we'll have a boost.

Happy Independence Day to any American readers, and I wish you health and happiness. Until next time.

2020 Sankey Spending Flow

It hit me a few days ago that I didn't do a Sankey diagram for our 2020 income and spending. I really like these diagrams for visualizing that which is hard to visualize: namely, how income gets chopped up into various buckets.

Here's the 2020 flow diagram (click to enlarge):

Some notes:

• This year I've added income-dependent outflows such as income taxes, social security (Rentenversicherung), my pension, and so on. That presents a more accurate picture of how much we're actually left with to budget.
• In my wife's case (Job2), those expenses are estimated in advance and adjusted every year. So 2020's expenses are based on 2018's earnings, which is why they're such a large percent of her income. I expect that there will be a sharp revision downward once we file our 2020 taxes, but that will be months before those are finalized and accepted by the Finanzamt.
• "Rent" includes various utilities costs such as water, heating, garbage disposal, etc. In Germany, this is known as "Warmmiete".
• The "BLOW" categories house a bunch of personal things. That's where most restaurant, clothing, and miscellaneous stuff goes.
• "Household" contains expenses that are agreed upon by us both and are general meant as home improvements or large mutually beneficial expenses.
• "Rundfunk" is a cost for anyone with a dwelling in Germany. It's a controversial law that forces the public to pay for a set of media companies in order to maintain viable quality media within Germany. It costs more than Netflix for channels that my wife and I rarely pay any attention to. Nothing to be done about it though.
• "Side Stuff" includes my small time freelancing on the side. This has never reached a level to be taxed by Germany.
• "Refunds" include the various subsidies I received for my dental procedures as well as the first CARES Act stimulus payment from the IRS.
• "German Debt" includes installment plans that don't charge interest.
• "Digital Subs" includes media and cloud subscriptions.
• Any USD-based income (such as "GiftMoney") is converted to euros for this.
• I'm not including investment income or losses in this diagram.

Update: April 2021

Our net worth increased 10.75% in USD and 8.07% in EUR to $101,894 and €84,336 respectively. That's a year over year change of 78.77% in dollars and 60.24% in euros.

And what a year it's been. We're still masking up to go to grocery stores. My wife still isn't allowed to meet with people face to face and works from our home office entirely. Our incomes are still depressed. Our restaurant budget is still nothing. I still can't go to the gym.

But if you were long risk assets this past year, you've probably had a very good year financially. In fact, it's been such a good year, that I think a lot of assets have become overvalued and therefore risky.

April Contributors: Stocks and Stimulus

The factors that affected our numbers this month were primarily the strong performance of the stock market and a stimulus payment my wife got from the Germans because of the impact this whole mess has had on her business. That money went straight into an account for earmarked funds.

Germany has had various stimulus programs, but they've been pretty complex to use. Unlike the US, they haven't just shuttled money out to the citizens in waves of checks. The programs have been highly targeted, dependent on the state (Bundesland) to implement them, and you need to meet very specific criteria. For example, my wife missed out on one early stimulus payment because the timing of a vacation she took in 2019, which made the year over year comparison look better than it really was. But that meant zero help despite her income dropping to very low levels.

Additionally, because of these criteria, it requires the use of a tax preparer, whose fee reduces the impact of the stimulus. We love our Steuerberaterin, but we're sending her a lot of money in a very short time.

That's all to say, it's all a bit convoluted and over-engineered, which is kind of the German way.

Selling Stocks

I sold out of my positions in two companies yesterday:

Square (SQ)

And Cloudflare (NET)

Both had run up so much that I couldn't make sense of the valuation anymore. It's entirely possible that I'll regret this at some point in the future if/when they pop upwards, but such a pop would only further divorce them from their fundamentals, and their fundamentals suggest upwards of a decade before their valuations align.

Naturally, if they crash, I'll happily buy them again. And some other companies might also be on the chopping block once I figure out the tax implications.

However, selling is hard, and I often get it wrong. I sold Equinor (EQNR) and Ternium (TX) in the last few months, and both quickly climbed above my sale price. Much to my chagrin, I sold Foot Locker (FL) and Simon Property Group (SPG) a year ago at low prices and ate a huge loss, and both have recovered very well indeed.

My buying instincts appear solid, but my selling instincts need refinement.

Speculative Excess

Nevertheless, I can't help but feel like we're living in a moment of speculative excess, and that makes me more cautious. Speculative excess doesn't just affect the prices of assets, but it affects the way people talk about those assets and the way the press reports on them. It's self reinforcing and full of confirmation bias.

It's one reason I sold: I saw the confirmation bias in myself. I was looking for the angle that could justify my continuing to hold both of those companies, and seeing that in myself made me realize how flawed my own judgment was. The valuations don't make sense, and I was trying to make myself see that the valuations actually did make sense.

Beyond pure speculative insanity, we've seen several major blowups this year already from traders using too much leverage:

• Archegos Capital
• Greensill Capital
• Forced liquidations on Binance

Regarding crypto, whatever merits there are to cryptocurrencies, the proponents of crypto are behaving in the way you'd expect bubble proponents to behave: they are often dismissive and full of bile towards anyone who questions the basis for their belief (Disclosure: I have a tiny amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum).

Likewise, despite John Templeton's admonition that, "The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time is different'", I've seen lots of arguing that this time really is different! It's hilarious. I've heard it in podcasts, seen it online, and heard it from friends who believe we've entered a new era in some way. They might be right, but it sure sounds like the same sort of rationalization that accompanied previous bubbles.

So what else is there we don't know about? How about fraud? It's likely lurking somewhere, since crypto doesn't solve people behaving like people.

Anyway, I'm feeling cautious.

Over $100,000

As mentioned in my last post, we crossed the $100,000 mark for the first time. I figured it would happen this year, but I didn't expect it to happen quite so fast. And I didn't expect the sudden difference in my mindset. It's not as if I'm going to quit my job to become a full time speculator, but I have a greater sense of autonomy and more emotional detachment from my job.

The Virus Rages On

But financials obviously aren't the only thing, and this past year has been very hard on just about everybody. Thankfully the vaccine rollout is happening faster in Germany, and there's some light at the end of the tunnel here. In fact, we have our appointment for our first shots in a week and a half.

However, the virus continues to hurt people around the world, and I continue experience cognitive dissonance about the relative ease of my life.

May Expectations

Nothing special will happen with our incomes this month. We won't be able to save much because of some fees around my wife renewing her work permit. Because she's self-employed, they require a special document prepared by our tax preparer for yet another fee to that preparer, plus the fee for doing the renewal.

Meanwhile, we're still waiting on our 2019 tax refund. Hopefully that will land soon. And one day we'll get those last two stimulus payments from the US government, but I won't hold my breath.

I'll leave you with this:

Guilty as charged. Until next time.

Net Worth Update: November 2019

Our net worth increased 3.56% in USD and 4.03% in EUR to $57,087 and €51.756 respectively.

This was a surprisingly good result considering some large expenses. Once again, the stock market performed well. Our taxable brokerage account -- excluding deposited money -- climbed about 5% during the month. The IRAs climbed 3%.

On the expenses front, I finally got the bill for the dental work, and it was as quoted and expensive. Thankfully my health insurance chipped in their part quickly after I'd paid the bill in full, which cut down the cost by a third. I still have some other expected reimbursement sources that will hopefully chip in during the next month.

Our groceries budget was again really high. We had a Thanksgiving feast with some American friends, and we chipped in on some of the costs. But I doubt that was the whole story, and I hope this isn't a new normal.

December Outlook

On the income side, I'll receive my Christmas bonus from work, which adds up to 1/3 of a full month's pay. We also expect to receive the money from my wife's relative who helps subsidize my wife's music lessons. I realize how lucky we are for that.

As mentioned, I expect to receive additional reimbursement for the dental work. It won't cover the whole cost, but it will be enough that the total cost will have been significantly brought down.

We'll have to pay our estimated taxes in December, and that will be a large hit. My wife, due to a US trip, will have worked less in November, which will lower her December income.

We also need to buy my wife a new computer since hers finally died. I'll need to write a separate post about that since that previous computer gave us excellent value over its life.

Net Worth Update: July, 2019

Our net worth in July rose 7.3% and 9.73% to $51,451 and €46,228 respectively. We cracked $50k for the time being.

The big drivers behind this upward move were my summer bonus and the stock market. With the bonus, we were able to pay for our tax advisor as well as immigration fees from cash flow rather than dipping into savings, while still having a positive savings rate. I also earned some extra money from some extra side work.

Meanwhile, the stock market really went on a tear. Some of my laggard positions started to recover, and some of the German stocks finally had some small rebounds. I'm finally at an overall unrealized gain in the portfolio, which is reassuring.

Trip to U.S.A.

I'm currently in America, and although I'm trying to be judicious, I'm spending more money than I wish I were. Part of it is just social: if friends and family want to do something fun together, it's hard to say no when I only have limited time with them. To be honest, I don't really want to say no, and I don't want them to feel like they need to support me while here.

More surprising: America is really expensive. I'm always shocked by this, but Germany has maintained lower prices pretty well, so everything feels like a price shock when I come back. Beer, for example, is priced absurdly high relative to Germany. I find food in general more expensive. I'm sure there are some areas where there's a less of a difference or even a slight tilt towards lower prices in America, but so far on this trip, I'm getting killed by the high prices.

I'm not looking forward to updating the budget spreadsheet when I get more time for that. But I am having fun, and I'm glad I made the trip.

2018 American Tax Return Sent

This is a post where I have to emphasize: none of this is advice. It's documenting my decisions and experiences, but you should do your own research and/or speak to professionals before taking any actions regarding tax decisions.

On Friday, June 14, I stuck the wad of papers comprising our U.S. 2018 tax return into a large envelope and mailed it off. My wife and I have to do this process every year, and it’s one of the pleasures of an American living abroad.

Since the US taxes people based on citizenship rather than residency, Americans living abroad are required to file every year with the IRS regardless of whether they owe anything or not. More often than not, those Americans owe nothing year after year, and the process feels completely unnecessary. It ends up being a lot of paper work to say, “Hi there, I still live abroad and pay taxes abroad, and therefore, I shouldn’t have to pay anything back in the US.”

In our circumstances, we have to take the following steps to file without problem:

Buy TurboTax

I’ve been using them for years, and the product works. It nevertheless feels silly to have to shell out any money for this every year when I neither pay nor get paid once the filing is done.

Gather the Information

Even though we exclude our income from taxation using the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion (FEIE), we nevertheless have to document it with as much precision as possible. I print out the bank deposits each of us receive and create a spreadsheet listing the pre-tax sum we earn followed by the USDEUR conversion afterwards on that day to get a total USD total.

Since we also take the Foreign Housing Exclusion, I add up those sums as well with the appropriate conversions.

Since we have stock investments, I print out our brokerage forms as well as auto-import the transactions into TurboTax via the broker itself. That’s very handy. But without any earned income, it’s very hard to actually realize enough income from investments to warrant any taxes being paid.

Apply for the Form D/USA 101

The US has a Social Security agreement with Germany saying a lot of things, but most importantly for us, it says that self-employed people who pay into the Rentenversicherung system here don’t have to pay self-employment taxes back in the US.

This is one of those things that might be confusing if you’ve never been self-employed. When you’re self-employed in the US, you have to pay the full amount of Social Security and Medicare taxes, while employees have to only pay half while the employer pays the other half. Only if you reach a certain threshold of income do you have to concern yourself with the actual income tax.

When you exclude income on the tax return, you’re excluding it from income taxes. But you’re not excluding it from self-employment taxes. That’s a different process, and it involves getting documentation from the resident country saying that you’re in their system. That document in Germany is the Vordruck D/USA 101.

We apply for this in January for my wife, and we get the form typically a month and a half later. It’s a simple form saying what her job is and the dates the form covers and that she’s paying into the German system.

But we have to include it, otherwise we’d be expected to pay self-employment taxes on her income. Instead of filling out the Schedule SE, we just add a statement on one of the lines of the 1040.

Automatic Extension

Because we live abroad and are out of the country on the normal filing date, we’re entitled to an automatic two month extension to file. One doesn’t need to apply for this, and instead you have to write a statement requesting it when filing. I write this out in a word processor, and we both sign it.

Pack it Up and Ship it Off

Then we stick all this paperwork in an envelope and send it off to Texas. Because of the paperwork, E-filing is not an option.

And in the end, TurboTax says something like “Wow, you’re neither getting any money back, nor do you have to send any. How strange.” Yes. Welcome to the world of US tax filing for US expats.

Possible Future Headaches

Some things we might have to worry about in the future but haven’t so far:

• Declaring foreign accounts worth more than $10,000. So far none of our German accounts have reached that threshold, so we’ve been spared.
• Declaring foreign assets.
• Using the Foreign Tax Credit. I’ve considered using it to contribute to an IRA (a different post in and of itself), but it so far hasn’t made enough sense. For example, if I decline the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion, I’d use the Foreign Tax Credit to avoid paying US taxes. But you’re locked into that choice for five years, so I’ve always just used the FEIE. This will definitely become a challenge when I’m paying German taxes on dividends and capital gains, however.
• Complicated income or asset sales. For example, if I ever did any serious side work as a freelancer, I’d have to figure out how to file that in the US. It’s never really been clear how to do that. Likewise, if we ever bought and sold a house for a profit, I’m concerned how that’d be handled.

Net Worth Update: June, 2019

In June, our net worth increased in USD 1.81% to $47,921 and in EUR 0.29% to 42.110€.

The big factors in the move this month were as follows:

• Good stock market performance. Although, in my personal portfolio, we haven't totally recovered from the May drop, the performance plus our savings were strong enough to offset some big expenses.
• We saved around 20% of our cash flow, split between the Tagesgeld account (normal savings) and the brokerage. I'm using the term "cash flow", because I get paid in post-tax money, and my wife gets paid pre-tax money. I could try to include my pre-tax withholdings.... but nah. I'll start in 2020 when I update my budget spreadsheet. Cash flow it is.
• We made a big payment to the German government for estimated taxes.
• I made a large purchase of a used item for a hobby that I'm hoping to turn into a side income stream. That was around €1.200. I have some things that I hope to sell in the next couple of months to help offset the purchase.

Year-Over-Year Tells Its Own Story

It's funny, that is a very small looking percentage change, but I also track the year over year numbers (YOY), and those show just how steady growth over time can lead to big changes. From one year ago, our net worth is up 51.61% and 55.21% from $31,608 USD and €27.132 EUR, respectively. This is after a series of (in USD) smaller changes of 9.77%, 3.61%, -1.62%, 1.98%, 5.24%, -2.49%, 17.49%, 7.58%, 1.31%, 3.73%, -4.26%, and this latest 1.81%.

That's one reason I write these updates. I'm doing this anonymously, and it's not to brag or show off that I have some saved money. Instead it's to document how small changes over time lead to big changes that are counter-intuitive.

Over this last year, compounding had almost nothing to do with the YOY change. At my level of wealth, savings is the biggest factor in terms of wealth growth. My actual stock market returns are basically zilch over the last year. I'm hoping that changes, but my activities regarding saving should be biased towards a) earning more and b) saving more vs. c) earning higher returns.

July Expectations

This will be an expensive month:

• We paid our tax advisor for two separate items.
• We paid the government to reapply for our work visas. It's surprisingly expensive.
• I'm taking a trip to the U.S. later in the month. I'll do what I can, but it will cost money.
• I might have some random bits of income coming in from small gigs. We'll see.
• My wife is working fewer hours because of the usual summer slow down.
• We are expecting a tax refund (!!!), but we won't get that until August most likely.

Net Worth Update and Prognosis: April, 2019

Our net worth rose in April 3.73% in USD and 4.80% in EUR to $49,164 and 44,054€ respectively.

I saved some money into our Tagesgeld Konto (the German equivalent of a basic savings account) and to the brokerage, but it was not a great savings month. Instead, most of the gains came from the stock market. It was just a really good month for many of my stocks.

It would be nice if we could cross the $50k threshold by the end of May, but that's very dependent on the market since May and the next few months won't be inspiring on the savings front. In fact, I expect that our savings might go negative to pay for some upcoming things. Our estimated tax payment will hit next month, and this year we'll once again be going to a Steuerberater for our German taxes. The one upside is that I expect to not owe any taxes this year once the filing is done.

I'm also going to be paying for a bunch of dental work over the next few months. Some of that will be reimbursed by various insurances, but it will still cost a fair amount up front and in total and I don't know how quickly the reimbursement will take. We'll need to draw on saved up cash to pay for that. Our bank would be happy to lend us the money using what's called Dispogeld (if you overdraft your checking account/Girokonto, they lend you the money), but I'd prefer not to. The spread between what you get from the savings accounts in Germany vs. the interest you pay on Dispogeld is laughably wide. The Dispogeld costs 10.45% per annum, and it accumulates on day 1 and is payable at the end of the month, while the Tagesgeld gets 0.03% and pays out once at the end of the year. It's bizarrely lop-sided.

Net Worth Update: March 2019

Our net worth increased by 1.31% to $47,396. In euros it was up 2.34% to 42,037€.

We had some expenses that were unavoidable. We had to pay our quarterly taxes in Germany, and we had to buy some new glasses for my wife. She also took a vacation to the U.S. that cost a bit of money.

The stock market was a big tease this month. In the final weeks, our portfolio experiences wild volatility. One day jumped a lot, and then the next fell a lot. Nothing to be done about it. The market feels very sensitive right now, and I wish I could say that I can resist it, but on big down days it's hard not to feel personally stung. That's especially true if the weather is bad, which it often is in Germany.

I'm noticing a trend in our early year savings rate. Usually, in the first few months of the year, there are a bunch of expenses and adjustments that eat into our ability to save. The German social security and health insurance adjust, and we have to make our new - usually - elevated tax payments.

Lastly, whatever costs for vacations and things like that tend to cluster around this time of year as we make final decisions about what we want to do with our free time in the summer.

We're going to continue having to make big spending decisions over the next few months, so I'm expecting our savings rate to be depressed for a bit. I have gotten some extra work at my job, which will help elevate my earnings, so I'm hoping that can offset some of our savings inefficiency.

Out of Levers at my Current Job

I've hit a kind of mental stumbling block recently. I've run out of levers to pull at my job.

What I mean by "levers": when I look at my budget, I see places where I can focus to save more. By making a choice over here, I can cut our grocery bill. By doing x I can cut the electricity bill. If x then y. Onwards and onwards.

With a career, there are similar levers to pull. I can network. I can work harder or smarter. I can simply be better at a given task.

When thinking about levers, the basic concept is that with the effort, one should expect to see some result, and the result should ideally scale with the effort at a minimum.

At my job, I earn a salary and then additional money from some extra work that sometimes comes my way. I don't get to decide when I get this work, and the value that I get monetarily is highly variable. But I get this work because I'm reliable and have given a lot of effort when I've been given the opportunities to do it. In this case it's "if x then maaaaaybe y".

This December, I earned the most money from this extra work that I may ever earn from it from one assignment. And it was exhausting. My wife says that when I began, my stress level jumped up, and it didn't come down for months. I put so much effort and personal pride on the line for this extra work, and there's no moving up from here. I know what kind of additional extra work I'll get this next year, and it's not like I'll be rewarded with more pay as a consequence of my previous efforts. I got the money, and now it's on to the next thing, and the next thing doesn't reflect the previous effort I've given at all.

I find this incredibly frustrating, and I don't know what to do about it. On the one hand, I could change jobs, but due to the homogenization and unionization of this particular industry in Germany, it is unlikely that the situation will be meaningfully different elsewhere. Most likely, I'd just find myself in the same or worse situation. At the very least, at this job, I get the extra work, but I've gotten to this point after years of credibility building.

Starting elsewhere, I'd be beginning all over.

Not to mention, moving is expensive. I'd need a guaranteed upgrade to make it worth it. But again: the homogenization in the industry makes that unlikely. Where I am now has a funny balance of decent pay and relatively low cost of living. I could try for the same job in one of the larger German cities, but the COL would jump.

In summary: I've run out of levers at this job. I don't think I can push harder and make more money from it. There has to be some kind of paradigm shift to resolve this inner turmoil of mine. Some ideas:

• Drastically reduce spending. Go total LeanFIRE on our current circumstances.
• Find a side hustle. That's currently hard for me because I'm on a visa, and starting side businesses in Germany requires entering into the bureaucracy. This will be a better possibility once I get the German equivalent of a green card and get my permanent residency.
• Change careers. Not sure what that would be, and I'm not sure if I'd want to do it in Germany.
• Enter into a similar career within the same industry that might lead to better future opportunities. It's very risky in this particular industry.
• Take it easy and enjoy the work/life balance I have and be more cautious on how much personal stake I take in my job.

Some comments about the second and last points. I have a colleague - also an immigrant to Germany - who does his job but who has officially refused to take any of the extra work. Instead, he's built up a portfolio of rental properties that he owns and manages.

It's obvious that those properties are what he really cares about professionally-speaking, but he puts in his time at our employer and keeps his personal investment low. Meanwhile, he puts in back-breaking work on the properties. Those levers make sense and justify the effort: make an improvement on one area, and he can raise the rent or sell the property for more later. If x then y.

I used to resent him for his lackadaisical attitude towards the job we share, but maybe he has the right idea. Or at least, there's part of his strategy that I should adapt and adopt. Namely, I should back myself out of so much personal investment in the job. They aren't going to meaningfully reward me for anything beyond a certain point, and I need to find that point and live there.

And I need to develop something on the side. I don't know if rental property is that thing, since the American tax consequences might be awful (sigh), but I need to explore.

December, 2018 Net Worth Update and Year End Review

UPDATE: I made a mistake when I initially posted this. In my spreadsheet, I double counted one of our credit card liabilities. We were still down for the month, but not quite as much as I originally wrote here. The updated numbers are $37,014.97 and €32,497.78 respectively. I'll leave the post as-is though since from a high level it remains correct.

Our net worth dropped in December to $36,153.59 or €31,741.52. That's a one month change of about -4.75%.

Since the majority of whatever wealth we have is in the form of stocks, we were hit hard by the sell-off in equities. Anyone paying attention to the markets this past month would have seen the kind of fast paced elevator down that market pundits have been scaring us about for years. Our savings rate didn't spare us from the damage.

We're still well up from a year ago though, and that's the perspective I want to keep in mind. Equities are for long-terms positions. I'm not a trader, and month to month moves whether up or down can only cause heartbreak if you get too emotionally invested in them.

This month had a few novel transactions worth mentioning. I got my Christmas bonus, which I always appreciate. At the same time, we had to pay our estimated taxes to the German government for the fourth quarter, so it was basically a wash. We also received a bit of Christmas money from relatives and a larger sum from a relative specifically earmarked to support a hobby of my wife's.

Year-End Review

So how'd we do this year? Our net worth is up around 33% in dollars from one year ago. That's entirely savings-rate based since our equity positions have been all over the place. As that net worth number grows, any year over year growth is going to come increasingly from investment performance.

Investment Performance

And my investment performance this year was bad at a YTD drop of 13% (I'm only considering my taxable brokerage account). Some of it was just the way the markets moved. For people following the US markets, it was a volatile year with big drops in February and then the last months of the year, but if you were invested in just about anything outside of the US, ho ho ho, you had a rough year.

How could I have known that at the exact moment I'd begin investing in German companies, it was at the peak of the German market? I began buying in October 2017, and this chart is the daily chart of the DAX from the past year:

It's actually uncanny how some of my German purchases happened at the exact tops of their cycles. The companies seemed cheap when I bought them, and they seem cheaper now, but that doesn't mean anything in the near term. The German companies were a drag on my performance over the whole year, even when I was doing well in other parts of the portfolio.

Some of the bad performance was from me trying things and discovering I don't have the temperament for them. I tried shorting some stocks, and I tried day-trading a few times. They're not my thing, and I'll avoid those activities in the future. Doing either triggers too much adrenaline and fear in me. Regardless of investment performance, I just don't want to live like that.

I also changed investment strategies in the middle of the year. I did a lot of backtesting and research to come up with a reasonable strategy, and I implemented it. I'm trying to control risk as best I can with smart position sizing and clear sell rules, but I do recognize that this strategy can be extremely volatile. As we get older, I have some ideas for how to reduce risk further within this current strategy, but for now, I'm being aggressive within my rules.

Recognizing my previous mistakes, I wrote a long document explaining the strategy and the rules. I've already referred to this document at times when I doubted my current approach, which makes this one of the best decisions I've made all year money-wise.

Savings

For our savings, we were somewhere around 25%. It's not exceptional, but it's not horrible either. I'd like to get this number up in 2019, but there are some genuinely life-improving expenses that may need to take priority if they become a possibility.

In 2018, the big overarching expenses were our rent as well as a trip we took to the US. Moving doesn't feel worth it. Rents are going up in Germany, and by staying put, we get to keep our rent stable while prices rise around us. I've looked at smaller apartments in our neighborhood, and their prices are approaching ours despite their smaller size. We could move further away, but our life satisfaction would plunge. Plus, my wife doesn't want to move, and neither do I.

After deliberation, I am going to the US this summer. I bought tickets using credit card points, and my wife and I will take our trips separately. I'm not thrilled about that entirely, to be honest, but the cost savings are enormous to having more focused trips back rather than larger multi-family tours. She can also work while I'm in the US and vice versa, so there's less opportunity cost.

We saved a bit on our tax preparation costs too. There are some tax people recommended to expats like us who speak English, but ouch they can charge a lot. They're very good, so don't get me wrong, but at some point you have to ask if what you're getting is worth the unusually high price. In our case, we were getting our taxes back in two weeks (fast) and we could communicate in English. But we speak German, so why not find someone less expensive who's good enough?

We could also do our own taxes, but for now I'm more comfortable with a professional in Germany on our side, and I'll keep doing my own US tax return.

So there's a wrap-up of the year for this abroad saver. I've learned a lot this year, and here's hoping for a more effective and smarter 2019. Cheers and have a happy new year.

November 2018 Net Worth Update

In November, our net worth rose about 5.25% to $37,962. In euros, it rose 5.7% to €33.417.The big factors that affected this number are as follows.

Stock Market

The stock market continued its volatility, and a number of individual companies I own fell by quite a lot. That's not fun to watch, but I have to content myself that the prices have fallen, and all future purchases are now going to matter more due to the lower purchase price.

I'm sitting on a net unrealized loss. That's mentally taxing, to put it mildly, but in addition to the above-listed consolation, I also spend a lot of time looking at past market corrections and how they affected the names that I'm holding. It feels painful now, but in a few years this will have been a blip in the movement of the stock markets. Even if this lasts a year, it is unlikely to be horrible.

I remember watching the 2015/2016 correction happening, and although it was exciting at the time, it now feels like nothing. When people talk about the long bull market, they rarely mention 2015/16, even though it was incredibly painful for a wide variety of stocks and industries. If you were holding commodity stocks, especially oil, you just got hammered. But that gets lost in the narrative of "the longest bull market in history".

Saving and a Gift

We saved a good amount this month (33.5% of income). Despite the stock market pain and despite my wife working fewer hours last month, our savings rate helped us inch upwards. We did get the electricity bill refund, so that basically eliminated our electricity costs for the month.

The biggest lever when you're talking about modest sums of money isn't the returns from investments but the total amount saved.

For transparency's sake, at the end of last month I received a monetary gift of $1000 out of the blue. I'm still uncertain as to why (other than that person loving me), but that money went straight to savings.

Economic Outpatient Care

The The Millionaire Next Door, Dr. Stanley spent a lot of time discussing "economic out-patient care". His basic idea was this: young people who receive a lot of monetary support from their familial elders often remain dependent on that support and develop bad habits that limit their future financial resourcefulness. He called that "weakening the weak".

Since learning of the concept, I've tried to be much more careful with such gifts. When I was much younger, I did develop bad habits from the knowledge that I had monetary help should I need it, and I'm trying to make up for past sins, so to speak.

Looking Ahead

December is a bit of a wild card. We have estimated taxes to pay, and we will eventually be billed for an extra payment for last year's German taxes. We also have a small trip to enjoy, which will cost some money, but I doubt we'll be extravagant.

Of course, there's always Christmas gifts, but we're modest gift givers, and we encourage modest gifts for ourselves as well. Because we live abroad, nobody expects anything too expensive or complicated, which does reduce expectations.

Unless the market really falls off a cliff, I expect further slow but steady progress.

Some US Expat Challenges

Before I moved out of the US, I didn't give much thought to the challenges of saving money and trying to build wealth. I was just happy to have a job, and I was happy that my wife accepted this new adventure.

But once here, it became increasingly clear that we Americans have challenges while living abroad that are unique to us. Here are some.

Filing Two Tax Returns

This is the big one. We Amis have to file both in our resident country as well as the US, and under certain circumstances we can owe taxes to both countries. There's no exit interview when you move abroad, so you just have to learn this on your own by reading the IRS website or by asking other expats. If you miss one or several returns, you're going to have a bunch of work to sort through to catch up, not to mention potential penalties.

As for the actual filing, you can use programs like TurboTax to file in the States, but TurboTax doesn't know everything. As soon as you move away from simply being an employee for a single employer earning under whatever the cutoff for the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion is, you enter a much more complicated tax situation. For example, being self-employed while resident abroad requires some familiarity with the treaties negotiated between the US and your resident country, if such a treaty exists.

U.S. Banks Probably Don't Want to Deal with You

You face an uncertain result if you tell your American bank back home that you've moved abroad. Many simply maintain an American address with a family member rather than take the risk of their bank closing their accounts. It's the same story with credit cards and investing accounts.

Foreign Banks May not Want to Deal with You

Because of the long arm of the U.S. government, foreign banks are required to disclose information about American account holders to the U.S. government. When opening an account abroad, you may be sent IRS Form W-9 from the foreign bank.

Many banks don't want the hassle, and they may simply refuse to give you an account because of it. When FATCA was passed, there were lots of stories of Americans losing access to banks and banking products. It's gotten better since then, but we always have to assume that it could happen again.

Floating Currencies and Conversion

Living abroad subjects you to currency risk. If you have any kind of financial life in the US, you will need dollars at some point, and you will then be hit with the reality of ever-shifting global currencies.

When my wife and I first moved here, the euro was worth around 1.38 dollars. In the first year, we tried just getting our lives together and didn't aggressively pay down the debts accrued to move here. Within around a year, the euro plunged in value, and suddenly we faced debts accrued in dollars becoming larger relative to our European incomes simply due to currency fluctuation.

On top of that, converting currencies costs money. If you use a service like XE Trade or Transferwise, they will charge you some kind of fee or make money by converting at a slightly disadvantageous rate. But they're much better than using a bank or one of those conversion kiosks.

Complex Rules for Investing

Once you've actually saved your money, it's unclear where to put it. Save it abroad or in the US? What kind of vehicle? Savings accounts pay basically nothing (especially in the eurozone), but when you look at equities you are entering a new world of complexity. Individual stocks or funds?  Real estate and rental income? You have to consider the taxation rules for both countries when making your decision, and you have to consider potential future changes to the law. What strategy is the lowest risk within this complex matrix of possibilities? I've made my own choices here (buying individual stocks rather than funds), but each person will have to make their own choices.

For example, buying funds as an American in Germany is really risky. If you buy funds in Germany, the US will tax them punitively. If you buy funds in the US, Germany taxes them less punitively than they used to, but I find the rules excessively complex and somewhat punitive.

Do You Speak the Language?

We are at risk, though this applies to everyone, when we don't speak the home country's language as well as everyone else. The fine print matters, and if you find English legalese tricky, it's only going to be trickier in a language you didn't spend speaking during your school years.

That list should give you an idea of what we're dealing with. In many ways, of course, we're very privileged. We chose to be abroad. We chose this country. At least in Germany, most Germans seem happy to have us living here.

But there are a lot of traps you can step in while living abroad. I'm still learning.

Budgeting and Decisions

Yesterday, my wife and I came to a conclusion: we will not be doing a big U.S. visit in 2019. I got super stressed about this decision while we were making it, but the decision became much easier after doing three things:

• Adding up the costs of the last big trip taken a few months ago. 
• Looking at our budget for the next few months. 
• Talking about the decision with each other. 

The numbers don't lie. The last trip was really expensive. Although there are areas where we could cut costs and optimize, the next one would likely also be expensive in unavoidable ways, and combined with some other upcoming costs and upcoming financial uncertainties (cough cough taxes) it meant we'd be opening ourselves up to too much financial risk. Additionally, even if the uncertainties went our way, another trip would set us back on our longer term financial goals. 

So we had to bail on the idea. I sent out the messages to the relatives. Sorry. No big trip this year. I'd feel guilty, except that I know the numbers and how unrealistic it is to expect to do this every year. 

This is one reason why we should set financial goals, track our spending and budget future spending. At numerous points in my life, major decisions were made much clearer when the budget spit out its numbers. Rather than just a vague unease with a purchase or choice, the numbers show us why we are uneasy. They show us how the unwritten budget math in our minds is most likely lying and presenting an overly rosy view of things. Nearly any major decision can be reinforced or rejected by checking the budget. 

But we have to make one and follow it. It's hard, but it's worth it.